宏观情绪烘托，铜价偏强

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that although the domestic anti - involution measures have little impact on copper, the market sentiment is still bullish. The hydropower project brings an optimistic outlook for downstream demand, and the US dollar has weakened in the past two days, so the copper market is bullish. As the tariff implementation date approaches, attention should be paid to the tariff situation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 18, the State Council Information Office announced a new round of non - ferrous metal stability and growth plan. On July 19, the hydropower project on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River started, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan and a construction period of about 20 years [1]. - As of July 18, 2025, the spot smelting fee was - 43.16 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.31 cents/pound. The smelting and refining fees of smelters have stabilized and rebounded this week. A smelter has a maintenance plan in July, involving a refining capacity of 150,000 tons, with limited impact on refined copper production. SMM expects the domestic electrolytic copper output in July to increase by 15,500 tons month - on - month, an increase of 1.37% [1]. - In the international market, the copper transportation and export channels in Peru have resumed. As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.3635 million tons, an increase of 80,800 tons or 6.30% compared with the previous month. The downstream is in a relative off - season, with weak trading sentiment [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened high and closed low, showing a strong intraday trend, closing at 79,740. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 5,691 to 115,331 lots, and the short positions increased by 8,043 to 113,776 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 150 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 10 yuan/ton. On July 21, 2025, the LME official price was 9,843 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 69.5 dollars/ton [4]. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 28,200 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons from the previous period. As of July 21, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 71,100 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 122,100 tons, a slight decrease of 100 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 243,400 short tons, an increase of 1,023 short tons from the previous period [8].