宝城期货有色日报-20250722

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Copper: Today, the main copper futures price fluctuated around 79,700 yuan. The position of Shanghai copper decreased slightly. With the decline of the US dollar index and the improvement of domestic macro - and industrial expectations, the electrolytic copper inventory decreased significantly on Monday. Since last week, the macro - economic recovery has pushed up copper prices. The London copper has returned to the $10,000 mark, and the Shanghai copper has returned to the 80,000 mark. It is advisable to continue to pay attention to the long - short game at the integer mark [5]. - Aluminum: Today, Shanghai aluminum increased in position and rose, with the main futures price approaching the 21,000 mark. The 8 - 9 month spread continued to weaken. With the rapid recovery of domestic macro - expectations and the continuous rise of upstream alumina and coal prices, the profit of electrolytic aluminum plants decreased from a high level. The downstream is in the off - season with a decline in the start - up rate, and the inventory reduction of electrolytic aluminum has slowed down. It is expected that the aluminum price will remain strong, and also pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread [6]. - Nickel: Today, Shanghai nickel fell in the morning and rebounded in the afternoon, with the position continuing to rise. Supported by the macro - economic situation, the nickel price followed the upward trend. However, the medium - and long - term fundamentals of nickel in the non - ferrous metals are weak, and the recent increase in upstream port inventory has weakened the support for the nickel price. Technically, the nickel price increased in position and broke through the high point in early July, with strong upward momentum, and it is expected to remain strong [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: In June 2025, China's copper product output was 2.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative output of copper products was 11.765 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. In June 2025, China imported 460,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%; the cumulative import from January to June was 2.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. In June 2025, China exported 154,361 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 33.8%; the cumulative export from January to June was 743,254 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. On July 21, the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased significantly [9]. - Aluminum: From January to June 2025, China's cumulative import of bauxite was 103.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34%. On July 21, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 480,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons compared with July 17 and a decrease of 3,000 tons compared with July 14 [10]. - Nickel: On July 22, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Shanghai nickel 2508 contract, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,000 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,530 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,080 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was +3,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 126,130 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,630 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - Copper: The report provides charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancellation warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - Aluminum: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum month spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and alumina inventory [25][27][29]. - Nickel: The report presents charts on nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].