乐观预期主导，钢矿强势上行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore all showed strong upward trends, with daily increases of 3.12%, 2.84%, and 2.49% respectively, accompanied by increased trading volume and decreased open interest [4]. - Rebar's fundamentals continue to be seasonally weak, and steel prices in the off - season are still prone to pressure. However, with limited industrial contradictions, the fermentation of policy - positive expectations boosting market sentiment, and strong raw materials providing cost support, steel prices will continue to fluctuate upward. Attention should be paid to policy changes [4][33]. - The supply of hot - rolled coil is shrinking, while demand has good resilience, and its fundamentals have improved with inventory reduction again. With the fermentation of policy - positive expectations and cost support from strong raw materials, the price of hot - rolled coil will continue to fluctuate strongly, but the risk of weak external demand needs to be guarded against [4][34]. - Under the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are good, and the optimistic market sentiment remains, supporting the strong operation of ore prices. However, its valuation has reached a high level, and caution is needed for upward movement. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 268.56 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.1%. The balance of RMB loans of enterprises and institutions in local and foreign currencies was 182.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% [6]. - In the first half of 2025, the number of housing units delivered by real - estate enterprises generally decreased compared with the same period last year, indicating that the peak of delivery has passed [7]. - 36 coal mines have reached the first - level safety production standard and are now being publicly announced [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,421 yuan, and that of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) was 3,477 yuan. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 798 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,307 yuan, with a daily increase of 3.12%. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,477 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.84%. The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 823.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 2.49% [11]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, etc.), and steel - mill production status (such as blast - furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate) [13][18][29] 3.5 Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply continues to shrink, but the space for continuous production reduction is limited due to good profit per ton. Demand is weak, showing obvious off - season characteristics. With limited industrial contradictions, positive policy expectations, and cost support from strong raw materials, steel prices will continue to fluctuate upward [33]. - Hot - rolled coil: Supply is shrinking, but the sustainability of production reduction is not strong. Demand has good resilience, but there are concerns about external demand. With improved fundamentals and cost support, prices will continue to fluctuate strongly [34]. - Iron ore: Demand is strong with the recovery of steel - mill production, while supply is shrinking. The fundamentals are good, and market sentiment is optimistic, but the high valuation requires cautious optimism for upward movement [34].