商品期货早班车-20250722

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The gold market is supported by factors such as the Fed's potential rate cut and geopolitical uncertainties, with a recommendation to go long on gold. The silver market shows short - term strength but offers long - term shorting opportunities [1]. - The basic metals market has different trends. Aluminum and alumina are expected to be volatile and strong, zinc is short - term neutral and long - term bearish, lead is range - bound, industrial silicon and lithium carbonate are recommended to go long under certain conditions, and polysilicon has intensified short - term market competition [1][2][3]. - The black industry shows a balanced supply - demand situation for steel but with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to be cautious in trading, with some opportunities for short - term chasing [4]. - The agricultural product market has various trends. Soybean meal follows international costs, corn is expected to be volatile, sugar is recommended to go short, cotton is recommended to go long at low prices, palm oil is short - term strong, eggs are expected to be strong, and pork is bearish in the medium - term [5][6]. - The energy and chemical market has different outlooks. LLDPE is short - term strong and long - term bearish, PVC and glass are recommended to wait and see, PTA is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA, rubber is short - term strong, PP is short - term volatile and long - term bearish, MEG is expected to be weak, and crude oil is recommended to go short at high prices [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Gold and Silver - Market Performance: On Monday, precious metal prices strengthened, with COMEX gold up over 1% and silver up over 2% [1]. - Fundamentals: The Fed may cut rates in July, and there are various geopolitical and economic events in the US. Gold and silver inventories in different regions have different changes [1]. - Trading Strategies: Go long on gold; short - term avoid risks in silver and long - term look for shorting opportunities [1]. Basic Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The electrolytic aluminum contract rose 1.61% to 20,840 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: High - load production on the supply side and a slight increase in demand during the off - season [2]. - Trading Strategies: Expect prices to be volatile and strong, and recommend going long at low prices [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: The alumina contract rose 8.08% to 3,386 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Stable production on the supply side and high - load production of electrolytic aluminum on the demand side [2]. - Trading Strategies: Pay attention to policy and supply - demand changes, and the market is in a multi - empty game [2]. Zinc - Market Performance: The zinc contract rose 2.62% to 22,885 yuan/ton [2][3]. - Fundamentals: Increased supply and weak demand in the off - season, with a risk of a short squeeze [3]. - Trading Strategies: Short - term neutral and long - term bearish [3]. Lead - Market Performance: The lead contract rose 0.83% to 16,960 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Low supply and demand, with a risk of a short squeeze [3]. - Trading Strategies: Range - bound trading [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The contract rose 565 yuan/ton to 9,260 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Slight increase in supply and stable demand in different sectors [3]. - Trading Strategies: Go long at low prices, paying attention to production resumption and policies [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The contract rose 2.53% to 71,280 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Increased supply and demand, with high inventory [3]. - Trading Strategies: Short - term prices are likely to rise, and go long if high - capacity mines cut production [3]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The contract rose 1,810 yuan/ton to 45,660 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Slight increase in supply, inventory reduction, and weak demand [3]. - Trading Strategies: Partially take profit on long positions due to intensified market competition [3]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The rebar contract rose 25 yuan/ton to 3,222 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Balanced supply - demand with structural differentiation and slightly high valuation [4]. - Trading Strategies: Be cautious, with opportunities for short - term chasing and consider exiting arbitrage [4]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The iron ore contract rose 9 yuan/ton to 809 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Decreased supply and increased demand, with neutral valuation [4]. - Trading Strategies: Be cautious, with opportunities for short - term chasing and long - position layout [4]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The coking coal contract rose 68.5 yuan/ton to 1,032.5 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Loose supply - demand with improving fundamentals and high valuation [4]. - Trading Strategies: Be cautious and consider exiting long positions [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans fell overnight [5]. - Fundamentals: Abundant supply and variable demand [5]. - Trading Strategies: Follow international costs and pay attention to weather and policies [5]. Corn - Market Performance: The corn contract continued to rebound [6]. - Fundamentals: Tightening supply - demand, affected by substitutes [6]. - Trading Strategies: Expected to be volatile [6]. Sugar - Market Performance: The sugar contract fell 0.15% to 5,831 yuan/ton [6]. - Fundamentals: Import pressure and weakening market sentiment [6]. - Trading Strategies: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - Market Performance: US cotton prices fell overnight [6]. - Fundamentals: Improving US cotton quality and changing domestic inventory [6]. - Trading Strategies: Go long at low prices and use range - bound strategies [6]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil fell [6]. - Fundamentals: Weakening supply and demand [6]. - Trading Strategies: Short - term strong, with attention to production and policies [6]. Eggs - Market Performance: The egg contract continued to rebound [6]. - Fundamentals: Reduced supply and increased demand [6]. - Trading Strategies: Expected to be strong [6]. Pork - Market Performance: The pork contract rose [6]. - Fundamentals: Weakening demand and increasing supply [6]. - Trading Strategies: Limited upside potential [6]. Apples - Market Performance: The apple contract rose 0.51% to 7,923 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: Uncertain production and weak consumption [7]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The LLDPE contract rose slightly [7]. - Fundamentals: Increasing domestic supply and improving demand [7]. - Trading Strategies: Short - term strong and long - term bearish [7]. PVC - Market Performance: The PVC contract rose 1.7% to 5,163 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: Policy - driven with unchanged supply - demand and increasing inventory [7]. - Trading Strategies: Exit short positions and wait for policy implementation [7]. PTA - Market Performance: PX price was 842 dollars/ton, and PTA was 4,785 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: Moderate PX supply, increasing PTA supply, and weak polyester demand [7]. - Trading Strategies: Go long on PX and short on PTA [7]. Rubber - Market Performance: The rubber contract rose 0.37% to 14,895 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: Stable raw material prices and inventory reduction [8]. - Trading Strategies: Short - term strong, with attention to pressure levels [8]. Glass - Market Performance: The glass contract rose 2.9% to 1,178 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: Policy - driven with weak fundamentals and inventory reduction [8]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see for policy implementation [8]. PP - Market Performance: The PP contract rebounded slightly [8]. - Fundamentals: Increasing supply and differentiated demand [8]. - Trading Strategies: Short - term volatile and long - term bearish [8]. MEG - Market Performance: MEG price was 4,470 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: High supply, low inventory, and weak polyester demand [8]. - Trading Strategies: Expected to be weak, short at high prices [8]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices fell slightly and were in a narrow - range oscillation [9]. - Fundamentals: Increasing supply and changing demand, with inventory accumulation [9]. - Trading Strategies: Short at high prices, paying attention to supply - demand changes [9]. Styrene - Market Performance: The styrene contract rebounded slightly [9]. - Fundamentals: Slight inventory changes and weak demand [9]. - Trading Strategies: Short - term volatile and long - term bearish [9]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The soda ash contract rose 2.7% to 1,308 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: Policy - driven with high inventory and weak downstream demand [9]. - Trading Strategies: Wait and see [9].