Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is generally positive due to anti - involution measures and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project. Most commodities are expected to show a bullish trend in the short - term, but there are also risks of price corrections [3][10][12]. - Different commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics. For example, some commodities face supply contraction expectations, while others have issues such as high inventory or weak demand in the short - term [3][21][23]. Summary by Commodity 1. Coking Coal - Price: Opened high and rose sharply, with an intraday increase of nearly 8%. The mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was 1080 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 main coking raw coal was 850 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton [3]. - Supply: In June, coking coal imports increased by 172.15 tons month - on - month, with Mongolian coal imports increasing by 36 tons. Domestic mines are in the process of resuming production after safety inspections, and the inventory is being transferred downstream [3]. - Demand: The second round of coke price increases is expected to be implemented this week. Downstream steel mills are profitable, and iron ore production has started to rise. The start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project boosts demand [3]. - Outlook: The supply contraction expectation drives up the market, and the hydropower project provides demand support. The long - term trend is bullish, but be cautious of price corrections [3]. 2. Crude Oil - Geopolitical Factors: The weak retaliatory action of Iran and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel have alleviated concerns about supply disruptions. However, the subsequent development of the Middle East situation still needs attention [5]. - Supply - demand: Entering the seasonal peak travel season, US crude oil inventories are at a low level. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations [5]. - Price: Saudi Aramco has raised the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil to Asia in August. The market has priced in the OPEC+ production increase, and the IEA has raised the forecast of global crude oil surplus in 2025 [5]. - Outlook: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to buy at the lower end of the fluctuation range, and the upside is limited by the actual production increase of OPEC+ [5]. 3. Copper - Policy Impact: The new round of measures to stabilize the growth of the non - ferrous metal industry and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project have a positive impact on the market sentiment [10]. - Supply: The smelting fees have stabilized and rebounded. A smelter's maintenance plan in July has limited impact on refined copper production. SMM expects domestic electrolytic copper production to increase by 1.55 tons in July [10]. - Demand: It is in the off - season, and the trading sentiment is weak. The downstream follows the market on a need - to - basis, and the market is waiting and seeing [10]. - Outlook: The anti - involution measures have a small impact on copper, but the market sentiment is bullish. The hydropower project brings optimistic demand prospects, and the dollar has weakened in the past two days. The copper market is bullish, and attention should be paid to the implementation of tariffs [10]. 4. Lithium Carbonate - Price: Opened high and rose nearly 3%. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,100 yuan/ton, up 1100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 67,450 yuan/ton, up 1100 yuan/ton [12]. - Supply: Some production capacities have been shut down or reduced, but the production in June increased by 8% month - on - month and 18% year - on - year. The inventory pressure has been relieved but is still at a high level [12]. - Cost: The price of spodumene has continued to rise, providing cost support [12]. - Outlook: The anti - involution measures and the expected improvement in downstream demand have boosted market sentiment. The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term but may correct after the sentiment stabilizes [12]. 5. Asphalt - Supply: The operating rate has continued to recover but is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The expected production in July is 2.542 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.0% and a year - on - year increase of 23.6% [13]. - Demand: The operating rates of downstream industries have fluctuated. The road asphalt operating rate has remained flat at a low level, affected by funds and weather. The national shipment volume has decreased, and the inventory of refineries has increased slightly [13]. - Outlook: As it gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to buy the spread between the 09 and 12 contracts at a low price [14]. 6. PP - Supply: The new production capacity of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 4 was put into operation in June, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased slightly. The enterprise operating rate is at a neutral level, and the production ratio of standard products has decreased [15]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has declined, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The new orders are limited, and the inventory pressure is still high [15]. - Cost: The coal price has risen sharply due to the coal mine production inspection [15]. - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. It is recommended to buy at a low price or conduct a 09 - 01 reverse spread [15]. 7. Plastic - Supply: Some maintenance devices have restarted, and the operating rate has increased to around 87%, at a neutral level. The new production capacity of Shandong Yulong Petrochemical's 2 HDPE has been put into operation [16]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has increased slightly, but it is still at a low level in recent years. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory pressure is high [16][18]. - Cost: The coal price has risen due to the coal mine production inspection [16]. - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. It is recommended to buy at a low price or conduct a 09 - 01 reverse spread [18]. 8. PVC - Supply: The operating rate has increased to 77.59%, at a relatively high level in recent years. The new production capacities of Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua have been tested [19]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate is still low compared with previous years, and the procurement is cautious. The export is restricted by policies, and the demand has not improved substantially [19]. - Cost: The coal price has risen due to the coal mine production inspection [19]. - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. It is recommended to buy at a low price or conduct a 09 - 01 reverse spread [19]. 9. Soybean Oil - Price: The main 09 contract showed a weak - side fluctuation pattern, with a closing decline of - 0.59%. The trading volume was in a narrow range, and the long - position funds left the market [21]. - Supply: The weekly output of soybean oil in the crushing plant increased by 0.44% week - on - week, and the weather forecast shows that the rainfall in the US Midwest will help relieve the high - temperature impact on crops [21]. - Demand: It is in the seasonal off - season, and the market shows a situation of low trading volume. The follow - up US biofuel policy may boost demand [21]. - Inventory: The port inventory increased by 5.58% week - on - week and 22.24% this month, with great inventory accumulation pressure [21]. - Outlook: The supply - demand pattern is loose in the short - term, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The biofuel policy and the change of season may support the market, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the biofuel policy and inventory changes [21]. 10. Soybean Meal - Price: The main 09 contract showed an upward trend, with a closing increase of 0.88%. The trading volume was in a narrow range, and the technical indicators showed a short - term equilibrium of long and short forces [22]. - Supply: The rainfall in the US Midwest will relieve the soybean supply pressure. The domestic crushing volume has decreased slightly but is still at a high level, and the supply is sufficient [22][23]. - Demand: The low - price soybean meal is cost - effective in July, and the demand from feed enterprises is strong. The biofuel policy may boost the price [23]. - Inventory: The inventory has continued to accumulate, and the physical inventory of downstream feed enterprises is close to saturation, and the subsequent pick - up volume is expected to decline [23]. - Outlook: The biofuel policy may boost the price, but the supply is loose and the inventory accumulation is fast, which limits the price increase. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the biofuel policy [23]. 11. Rebar - Price: The main 2510 contract rose by 3.12%. The short - term and long - term trends are bullish, but attention should be paid to the technical correction after over - buying [24]. - Supply: The anti - involution policy promotes industry integration, and the cost support is enhanced. However, the molten iron production is still at a high level, and the supply pressure has not been fully relieved [24]. - Demand: The Yarlung Zangbo River project brings long - term demand expectations, but the short - term procurement has not increased significantly. The anti - dumping policy restricts exports [24]. - Inventory: The social inventory has decreased, but the factory inventory reduction has slowed down, and the terminal orders are mainly for rigid needs [24]. - Outlook: Policy benefits and cost support drive the price up, but the weak demand in the off - season and export pressure are constraints. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 3260 yuan, and pay attention to the procurement progress of the Yarlung Zangbo River project and the inventory replenishment rhythm of steel mills [24][26]. 12. Hot - Rolled Coil - Price: The main 2510 contract rose by 2.84%. The short - term and long - term trends are bullish, but attention should be paid to price fluctuations [27]. - Supply: The anti - involution policy promotes industry integration, and the cost support is enhanced. The overall supply is still at a high level [27]. - Demand: The Yarlung Zangbo River project will stimulate long - term demand, but the short - term demand has not improved as expected [27]. - Inventory: Both social and factory inventories have decreased, and the total inventory has decreased by 10,900 tons. The basis has been quickly repaired [27]. - Outlook: It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 3350 yuan, and pay attention to the procurement progress of the Yarlung Zangbo River project and the inventory replenishment rhythm of steel mills [27]. 13. Urea - Price: The futures price opened high and closed slightly higher. The spot price has risen, but the subsequent increase is expected to narrow [28]. - Supply: The production in the previous week decreased due to device shutdowns, and the production is expected to increase slightly this week. The market has high expectations for capacity reduction [28]. - Demand: The corn top - dressing is coming to an end, and the demand from compound fertilizer factories is elastic and has a short - term resistance to high prices [28][29]. - Inventory: The inventory has continued to decrease, mainly due to export and local agricultural demand [29]. - Outlook: The anti - involution measures have a limited impact on the short - term increase. The domestic demand is weak, but the overall sentiment of commodities is positive. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [29].
冠通每日交易策略-20250722
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-07-22 12:49