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软商品日报-20250722
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-07-22 12:47

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral (White star indicates short - term balance and low operability) [1] - Paper pulp: Bullish with limited operability (One star represents a bias towards a rising trend with weak operability) [1] - Apple: Neutral (White star indicates short - term balance and low operability) [1] - Sugar: Neutral (White star indicates short - term balance and low operability) [1] - Logs: Neutral (White star indicates short - term balance and low operability) [1] - 20 - rubber: Bullish with limited operability (One star represents a bias towards a rising trend with weak operability) [1] - Natural rubber: Bullish with limited operability (One star represents a bias towards a rising trend with weak operability) [1] - Butadiene rubber: Bullish and the trend is emerging (Two stars represent a clear rising trend and the market is fermenting) [1] Core Views - The overall commodity market is strong. The domestic anti - involution policy promotes commodity price increases. Different soft commodities show different trends and investment suggestions are mainly temporary observation or short - term operations [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Category Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today due to the strong commodity market and domestic policies. The 9 - 1 spread decreased. Cotton inventory depletion slowed in the first half of July. As of July 15, commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons from June. Downstream cotton procurement is still cautious, and there is a strong expectation of increased production in the new season. The pure - cotton yarn market has average trading volume and strong prices. Macroscopically, pay attention to the details of Sino - US trade agreements. Suggest temporary observation or intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices declined. In Brazil, heavy rainfall in the second half of June affected the sugar - cane harvest, and the sugar - cane crushing volume decreased year - on - year. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. As the overall harvest progress is slow this year, the sugar - cane crushing volume and sugar production have decreased significantly year - on - year. In July, rainfall in the main production areas decreased. In China, Zhengzhou sugar prices fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 392,300 tons year - on - year; imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a decrease of 103,500 tons year - on - year. Although Guangxi has increased production this year, due to the fast sales rhythm, inventory has decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. However, the US sugar trend is downward, and the upward space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited. It is expected that sugar prices will fluctuate in the short term. Suggest temporary observation [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. Early - maturing apples are on the market, cold - storage merchants are more willing to sell, and cold - storage apple prices are falling. There are many seasonal fruits with low prices, and the hot weather has led to low apple demand. However, the remaining inventory is not large, and the inventory pressure is not significant. As of July 18, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 734,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.55%. Last week, the cold - storage apple destocking volume was 90,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.8%. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. Although the western production areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the impact on production is small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in the production estimate. Suggest temporary observation [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, MR, and BR all rose. The futures market sentiment is optimistic, and the domestic spot prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber continue to rise. The Asian price of the butadiene tower outlet is stable, while the European price is stable with a slight decline. The price of the Thai raw material market continues to rise. Globally, natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period. Typhoon "Weipa" has entered northern Vietnam, bringing heavy rain to some areas in Southeast Asia. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded. Jinzhou Petrochemical, Heze Kexin, and Yanshan Petrochemical restarted, and Yihua Rubber and Plastics plans to restart this week. Dushanzi Petrochemical reduced its load, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to decline. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tire plants continued to rise slightly, and the operating rate of semi - steel tire plants continued to rise significantly. Tire manufacturers that had stopped production for maintenance have fully resumed normal production, and tire inventory has increased. This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao, as counted by Longzhong, dropped to 634,600 tons, and both bonded - area and general - trade inventories decreased. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese cis - butadiene rubber, as counted by Zhuochuang, dropped to 12,600 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene dropped significantly to 20,000 tons. Overall, downstream demand has improved, rubber supply has increased, rubber inventory has decreased, market sentiment is positive, and there are potential policy benefits. The strategy is to expect a rebound [6] Paper Pulp - Today, pulp prices continued to rise. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was 5,900 yuan/ton, remaining stable; the price of Russian softwood pulp in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,200 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Star was 4,100 yuan/ton, remaining stable. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp samples in China was 2.181 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous period. In June, China's pulp imports were still relatively high year - on - year. In June, China imported 3.031 million tons of pulp, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 18.578 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Currently, the port inventory in China is relatively high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, pulp demand is still weak, downstream buyers tend to bargain, and demand is in the traditional off - season. Pulp valuation is low. Last Friday, China introduced more anti - involution policies, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, focusing on adjusting the structure, optimizing supply, and eliminating backward production capacity. Suggest temporary observation or light - position buying on dips [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. As of July 18, the average daily outbound volume of logs from 13 national ports was 62,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 3,600 cubic meters, an increase of 6.12%. Last week, the average daily outbound volume of ports rebounded to 60,000 cubic meters. After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume of ports fluctuates around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall outbound volume is good. As of July 18, the total national port log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous period. Among them, the radiata pine inventory was 2.64 million cubic meters. The overall national log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Due to poor profits, the shipment volume of New Zealand logs will remain low, and there is some positive news on the supply side. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the power for price rebound is insufficient. Suggest temporary observation [8]