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国投期货软商品日报-20250722
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-07-22 12:50

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating short - term equilibrium and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Paper pulp: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish drive but poor operability on the market) [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating short - term equilibrium and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating short - term equilibrium and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating short - term equilibrium and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish drive but poor operability on the market) [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish drive but poor operability on the market) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] Core Views - For different soft commodities, the market conditions vary. Some are affected by supply - demand relationships, weather, and policies. The overall suggestions are mainly to wait and see, with some opportunities for short - term operations or low - position buying [2][3][4] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today due to the strong overall commodity market and domestic anti - involution policies. The 9 - 1 spread declined. The cotton inventory depletion slowed in the first half of July. As of July 15, the commercial cotton inventory was 2.5424 million tons, a decrease of 287,400 tons compared to June. Downstream procurement is still cautious, and there is a strong expectation of increased production in the new year. The pure - cotton yarn market has average trading and strong prices. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar retreated. In Brazil, heavy rainfall in the second half of June affected the sugarcane harvest, with a year - on - year decrease in the sugarcane crushing volume. The sugar - making ratio increased year - on - year. The overall harvest progress is slow, resulting in large year - on - year decreases in sugarcane crushing and sugar production. In July, rainfall in the main producing areas decreased. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons, and 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. Although Guangxi has increased production this year, due to the fast sales pace, inventory has decreased year - on - year, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The US sugar trend is downward, and the upward space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited. It is expected that the sugar price will fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. New - season early - maturing apples began to be listed, and cold - storage merchants were more active in shipping, causing the price of cold - storage apples to weaken. There are many seasonal fruits with low prices, and the hot weather has led to low apple demand. However, the remaining inventory is not large. As of July 18, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 734,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.55%. Last week, the cold - storage apple destocking volume was 90,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.8%. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. Although the western producing areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period, the impact on production is small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in the production estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, MR, and BR all rose. The futures market sentiment was optimistic, and the domestic prices of natural and synthetic rubbers continued to rise. The Asian price of the butadiene tower outlet was stable, while the European price was stable with a slight decline. The price in the Thai raw material market continued to rise. Globally, the natural rubber supply is gradually entering the high - yield period. Typhoon "Weipa" entered northern Vietnam, bringing heavy rainfall to some areas in Southeast Asia. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded. Jinzhou Petrochemical, Heze Kexin, and Yanshan Petrochemical restarted, and Yihua Rubber and Plastics plans to restart this week. Dushanzi Petrochemical reduced its load, and the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to decline. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires continued to rise slightly, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires continued to rise significantly. Enterprises that had stopped production for maintenance have fully resumed normal production, and the inventory of tire finished products has increased. In terms of inventory, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 634,600 tons this week, with both bonded and general trade inventories decreasing. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 126,000 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene decreased significantly to 20,000 tons. Overall, downstream demand has improved, rubber supply has increased, rubber inventory has decreased, market sentiment is positive, and there are potential policy benefits. The strategy is to expect a rebound [6] Paper Pulp - Today, pulp prices continued to rise. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was stable at 5,900 yuan/ton, the price of Russian softwood pulp in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,200 yuan/ton, and the price of broad - leaf pulp Mingxing was stable at 4,100 yuan/ton. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of mainstream imported pulp samples in China was 2.181 million tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous period. In June, China's pulp imports were still relatively high year - on - year, with an import volume of 3.031 million tons in June and a cumulative import volume of 18.578 million tons from January to June, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Currently, the port inventory in China is relatively high year - on - year, the pulp supply is relatively loose, the pulp demand is still weak, and downstream buyers tend to bargain. The demand is in the traditional off - season. The pulp valuation is low. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize the supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. It is recommended to wait and see or buy lightly at low prices [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. As of July 18, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 62,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 3,600 cubic meters, an increase of 6.12%. Last week, the average daily outbound volume at ports rebounded to 60,000 cubic meters. After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume at ports fluctuates around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall destocking is good. As of July 18, the total national port log inventory was 3.29 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 cubic meters, with the radiation - pine inventory at 2.64 million cubic meters. The total national log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Due to poor profits, the shipment volume of New Zealand logs will remain low, providing some bullish factors on the supply side. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and there is insufficient momentum for price rebounds. It is recommended to wait and see [8]