大建筑央企投资复盘

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [11] Core Insights - The low valuation of major construction state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in recent years is attributed to the demographic dividend and investment peak occurring in 2010, leading to a decline in savings and investment growth rates, which negatively impacts demand in the construction industry. Additionally, these enterprises bear significant social responsibilities, limiting the potential for substantial gross margin increases. High proportions of receivables and inventory in their assets raise concerns about bad debt risks, compounded by high debt ratios [6][16][18] - Historical market trends indicate that major construction stocks have previously surged due to various factors, including the "Belt and Road" initiative, PPP models, and government stimulus measures aimed at stabilizing growth during economic downturns [25][33] - The future market performance of major construction SOEs warrants attention, as five out of eight major SOEs rank among the top ten in R&D expenditure in A-shares. For instance, China State Construction's R&D expenditure is projected to reach 45.5 billion yuan in 2024, positioning it second in A-shares, indicating a commitment to future growth [8][40] Summary by Sections 1. Why are major construction SOEs valued low in recent years? - The demographic and investment peaks have led to a downturn in construction demand, with major SOEs facing high social responsibilities and limited gross margin improvement potential. Concerns about bad debt risks arise from high proportions of receivables and inventory, alongside significant debt burdens [6][16][18] 2. Review of previous market cycles: Why did major construction stocks rise? - Major construction stocks experienced price increases during several key periods, including the "Belt and Road" initiative and government-led infrastructure spending. Factors such as the introduction of the "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" and national reforms also contributed to the rising valuations of these stocks [25][33] 3. Future market performance of major construction SOEs deserves attention - The R&D expenditures of major construction SOEs are significant, with five of them ranking in the top ten for A-share R&D spending. This investment in R&D is seen as a foundation for future growth, and the current state of these enterprises suggests a potential for recovery in valuations [8][40]