国信期货专题报告：供应宽松格局，价格震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current urea market is in a stage of continuous abundant supply and relatively weak demand. With the support of technological transformation and national supply - guarantee policies, the domestic urea production devices are operating at a high load, with the daily output stabilizing at around 190,000 tons, a five - year peak. Newly added production capacity will keep the supply abundant in the second half of the year. On the demand side, the extended agricultural off - season and slow industrial recovery have led to a dull market. The substantial improvement of demand depends on the start of autumn compound fertilizer production and winter storage. Policy and coal price factors strengthen the support for urea prices. In the third quarter, the price is likely to fluctuate at the bottom, and in the fourth quarter, it may rebound due to demand support, but the rebound strength is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to flexibly grasp trading opportunities based on factors such as autumn fertilizer production, winter storage policies, legal inspection systems, and coal price fluctuations [1][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Market Review - Since the listing of urea futures in 2019, the main contract price has fluctuated between 1,500 yuan/ton and 3,400 yuan/ton. From August to December 2019 and throughout 2020, the price was under pressure due to factors such as weakened cost support, production capacity expansion, and tightened export policies. After September 2024, the price dropped to a low - level range again. As of July 21, 2025, the UR2509 contract closed at 1,812 yuan/ton, still in a low - level oscillation pattern. The current supply - demand situation features high supply, weak domestic demand, marginal export support, and a rebound in coal prices, causing the price to oscillate in the low - level range [3]. Cost - Profit Analysis - The cost of different production processes: the cost of natural - gas - based urea production is 1,965 yuan/ton, the fixed - bed process cost is 1,917 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed process cost is 1,478 yuan/ton. Due to intensified industry competition, the profit margin of urea production has narrowed. The current gross profit of fixed - bed urea production is - 117 yuan/ton, that of entrained - flow bed is 362 yuan/ton, and that of natural - gas - based production is - 185 yuan/ton. When the urea price reaches around 1,600 yuan/ton, it will receive cost support [7]. Industrial Structure Analysis Supply Overview - China's urea production capacity has been expanding in recent years, and the total output has been increasing. It is expected that the total urea production capacity will exceed 80 million tons in 2025, with new production capacity from Hubei Sanning Chemical, Inner Mongolia Wulan Group, and Xinjiang Zhongneng Wanyuan. In the first half of 2025, China's urea output reached 36.005 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.18%. The daily output has steadily recovered to a high level, with an average daily output of 200,000 tons, keeping the supply pattern loose [12][18]. Demand Overview - Domestic urea demand is divided into agricultural and industrial demand, with the overall downstream demand being relatively stable. Agricultural demand accounts for about 70%, mainly for major crops such as corn, rice, and wheat. Industrial demand accounts for about 30%, mainly used in areas such as urea - formaldehyde resin, melamine, thermal power denitrification, and vehicle urea. The weekly capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers and the average operating load rate of the melamine industry have been relatively stable in recent years, indicating stable urea demand [20][21]. Inventory Analysis - With the continuous commissioning of new urea production facilities, the inventory of urea enterprises is at a historically high level, with the latest inventory at 741,000 tons. Under the "orderly export" policy in 2025, the port inventory is 443,000 tons and is slowly rising [24]. Import - Export Analysis - China is the world's largest urea producer, accounting for about 30% of the world's total production capacity. The export volume in 2023 was 4.25 million tons, 260,600 tons in 2024, and 77,200 tons from January to June 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 44.17%. India plans to stop importing urea by the end of 2025. The industry has established an export self - discipline mechanism, emphasizing the "domestic priority" principle. Head - leading enterprises are accelerating overseas production capacity layout to break through export constraints [29][34]. Market Outlook - The supply will remain abundant in the second half of the year, while the demand is in a cyclical trough. The market trading atmosphere is dull, and the substantial improvement of demand depends on autumn compound fertilizer production and winter storage. The inventory situation is divided, and the enterprise inventory pressure is temporarily controllable, while the port inventory change depends on export policies. Policy and coal price factors strengthen price support. In the third quarter, the price is likely to fluctuate at the bottom, and in the fourth quarter, it may rebound, but the rebound strength is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to flexibly grasp trading opportunities [35].