聚乙烯风险管理日报-20250722

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Polyethylene Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies Price Forecast - Price Range Forecast (Monthly) for Polyethylene: 7200 - 7500 yuan/ton; Current Volatility (20 - day rolling): 8.05%; Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 - year): 3.7% [3] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline: Short L2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7400 - 7450 yuan/ton; Sell L2509C7500 call options with a 50% ratio at 50 - 80 [3] Procurement Management - For low regular procurement inventory: Buy L2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 7150 - 7200 yuan/ton; Sell L2509P7200 put options with a 75% ratio at 30 - 80 [3] Group 3: Core Contradiction - Polyolefin market strengthened in the afternoon due to coking coal prices and positive policy signals. PE has a "weak reality + strong expectation" situation. Weak reality: PE spot is weak, basis is below - 100, and inventory is rising. Strong expectation: limited capacity increase recently and upcoming downstream peak season in late July to early August. PE month - spread changed from back to contango and is expected to continue until positive feedback from the spot market [4] Group 4:利多解读 - Positive factors: Macro - sentiment driven rise; LLDPE supply pressure eased by some full - density device rotation and low HDPE inventory; Potential reduction in PE imports from Iran due to Israel - Iran conflict [5] Group 5:利空解读 - Negative factors: Multiple HDPE device planned to be put into production in the middle of the year; Upstream price cuts lead to weak spot prices; PE inventory has been rising for two consecutive weeks, especially LLDPE [6] Group 6: Market Data Futures Prices and Spreads - Plastic main basis on July 22, 2025: - 118 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton from the previous day and 132 yuan/ton from a week ago. L01, L05, and L09 contracts increased by 83, 105, and 78 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous day [7] - L1 - 5, L5 - 9, and L9 - 1 month - spreads changed by - 22, 27, and - 5 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous day [9] - L - P spread was 200 yuan/ton on July 22, 2025, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous day [9] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7140, 7270, and 7280 yuan/ton respectively on July 22, 2025. East - North and East - South spreads were 130 and - 10 yuan/ton respectively [9] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - HDPE film - LLDPE film, HDPE hollow - LLDPE film, HDPE injection - LLDPE film, HDPE drawing - LLDPE film, and LDPE film - LLDPE film spreads changed by - 10, - 10, - 35, - 10, and - 10 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous day [9] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent crude oil price was 69 dollars/barrel on July 22, 2025; US ethane price was 0.245 dollars/gallon; Northwest coal price was 485 yuan/ton; East China methanol price was 2450 yuan/ton [9] - Oil - based, coal - based, externally - purchased methanol - based, externally - purchased ethane - based, and externally - purchased ethylene - based PE profits changed by 763.5293, 10, 10, 13.4548, and 431.9967 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous day [9]