聚丙烯风险管理日报-20250722

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market strengthened significantly in the afternoon due to the influence of coking coal prices. From a macro - perspective, positive policy signals led to a bullish sentiment. However, the PP market still faces upward pressure. On the supply side, three sets of equipment were put into operation from June to July, resulting in high PP production despite high maintenance levels. On the demand side, although the trading atmosphere improved this week, it is still in the off - season with limited substantial demand growth. Therefore, PP will face significant resistance during the upward trend. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of downstream demand and the progress of macro - policies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 7000 - 7300 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 7.71%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over three years is 3.6% [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategy - Inventory Management: For companies with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7250 - 7300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and offset production costs; sell PP2509C7300 call options with a 50% ratio at 50 - 80 to collect premiums and reduce costs [3]. - Procurement Management: For companies with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 7000 - 7050 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance; sell PP2509P7000 put options with a 75% ratio at 30 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The polyolefin market was driven up by coking coal prices and positive macro - policies. But for PP, there is still supply pressure due to new equipment put into operation from June to July, and demand is in the off - season with limited growth [4]. 3.4利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - The market is driven up by macro - sentiment. The inventory is at a neutral level, and the spot price is relatively firm with improved trading [5]. 3.5利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - Two sets of equipment in Daxie are expected to be put into operation in August. Multiple sets of equipment will be put into operation from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. The PDH profit has recovered, and marginal equipment is gradually resuming operation [6]. 3.6 Polypropylene Daily Report Table - Futures Prices and Spreads: The main - contract basis of polypropylene was - 78 yuan/ton on July 22, 2025, a daily change of - 57 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 153 yuan/ton. The prices of PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts all increased compared to the previous day and week [7][9]. - Spot Prices and Regional Spreads: Spot prices in North China remained unchanged, while those in East and South China increased slightly. Regional spreads also showed corresponding changes [9]. - Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads: The spreads between non - standard and standard products showed different degrees of change [9]. - Upstream Prices and Processing Profits: The Brent crude oil price remained stable, while the US propane price decreased. Different PP production methods had different profit changes [9].