南华纸浆产业风险管理日报：突破临界-20250722

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp futures have been rising recently due to the boost of the macro - atmosphere, despite the weak fundamentals and lack of confidence in chasing the rise. The current demand peak season has not arrived, and the domestic anti - involution has not affected the paper - making industry, so the upward movement of the futures price is weak. The market is at a critical point of breakthrough. If it can break through effectively, it is advisable to cautiously follow up on the long side [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.03% and a historical percentile of 58.0% over 3 years [2]. 3.2 Pulp Hedging Strategy - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high coniferous pulp inventory worried about price drops, they can short pulp futures (sp2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton [2]. - Procurement Management: Paper - making enterprises with low inventory can buy pulp futures (sp2509) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The main contract closed at 5368 (+40) today, with a 0.75% increase. In the spot market, the price of Shandong Yinxing is 5920 yuan/ton, Shandong Russian Needle is 5300 yuan/ton, and Shandong Goldfish is 4100 yuan/ton, all unchanged. The trading activity in the pulp spot market is low, and prices remain stable. The futures price is mainly driven up by macro factors [3]. 3.4利多解读 (Likely a typo, should be "Positive Factors Analysis") - The factors that are favorable for the pulp market are the significant strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate and the implementation of macro - policies [4]. 3.5利空解读 (Likely a typo, should be "Negative Factors Analysis") - The continuous decline of overseas pulp quotes is a negative factor for the market [5]. 3.6 Pulp Price Quotes - Futures Contracts: On July 22, 2025, SP2509 was at 5368 yuan/ton, SP2511 was at 5326 yuan/ton, and sp2601 was at 5502 yuan/ton, with different price changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [5]. - CFR Quotes: On July 21, 2025, the CFR quote for coniferous pulp was 870 US dollars/ton, and for broad - leaf pulp was 800 US dollars/ton, both unchanged [5]. - Domestic Spot Prices: On July 22, 2025, domestic spot prices of various types of pulp and finished paper showed different price trends, with some remaining stable and some having slight changes [7].