黑色金属日报-20250722

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is optimistic due to the "anti-involution" trend and the rectification of overproducing coal mines, and the industrial products at low levels continue to rise sharply. The market is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to policy changes on both supply and demand sides [2]. - The market expectations have improved due to the "anti-involution" and the upcoming important meeting, and the market sentiment has been further strengthened. It is expected that the short-term trend of iron ore will be strong, but attention should be paid to the risk of increased market volatility [3]. - The coke and coking coal prices have risen sharply, and although the carbon element supply is still abundant, the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level during the off-season. The impact of "anti-involution" on these industries is currently limited, and attention should be paid to whether the policies are further implemented. The futures prices are at a premium, and the upward trend may continue in the short term [4][6]. - The prices of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon have risen. The inventory of silicon manganese is expected to continue to decline, and the price of manganese ore is under pressure in the long term. The demand for ferrosilicon is generally good, and both follow the trend of thread steel, with relatively small increases [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The demand for thread steel is weak during the off-season, production continues to decline, and inventory accumulates slightly at a low level. The demand for hot-rolled coil remains resilient, production continues to decline, and inventory drops slightly. Molten iron production has increased and remains at a high level. The negative feedback pressure on the market is small under the low-inventory pattern. Domestic demand is still weak, while exports remain relatively high. The market is expected to remain strong [2]. Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments have increased month-on-month and are stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume has declined from a high level, and port inventory has increased slightly with no obvious short-term inventory accumulation pressure. On the demand side, it is the off-season for the terminal, the proportion of profitable steel mills is at a relatively high level in recent years, and the motivation for active production cuts is insufficient. The molten iron production unexpectedly rebounded last week. The short-term trend is expected to be strong [3]. Coke - The price limit up within the day. The second round of price increases for coking has been proposed, the coking profit is meager, and the daily coking production has increased slightly after a continuous decline. The overall coke inventory has decreased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders has increased. The carbon element supply is still abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level during the off-season. The futures price is at a premium, and the upward trend may continue in the short term [4]. Coking Coal - The price limit up within the day. Affected by policy documents, the futures price has risen significantly. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased, the spot auction market has improved, the transaction price has continued to rise, and the terminal inventory has increased. The total coking coal inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the production-side inventory has continued to decline significantly. It is likely to continue to reduce inventory in the short term. The carbon element supply is still abundant, and the downstream molten iron production remains at a high level during the off-season. The futures price is at a premium, and the upward trend may continue in the short term [6]. Silicon Manganese - The price fluctuated upward within the day. Due to continuous production cuts in the early stage, the inventory level has decreased, the weekly production recovery rate is slow, and both futures and spot demand have improved. It is judged that the inventory will mainly continue to decline. In the long term, the manganese ore inventory is gradually increasing, which exerts great pressure on the price. In the short term, the current inventory level is low, the price support intention of manganese mines has increased, and the spot manganese ore price has risen following the futures price [7]. Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuated upward within the day. The molten iron production has increased and returned above 242. The export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has decreased slightly month-on-month, and the secondary demand has slightly declined marginally. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon has increased slightly, the market transaction level is average, and the on-balance inventory has declined fluctuatingly [8].