Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views Coke - Supply: The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, improving coke enterprises' profits. Coke enterprise production has increased month - on - month, while steel mill coke production has decreased slightly, with total coke production rising slightly. The second round of price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton will be implemented this Tuesday [5][13]. - Demand: Last week, hot metal production unexpectedly increased, remaining at a relatively high level, providing strong support for coke demand. As of July 18, the daily average hot metal production was 2.4244 million tons (+2630) [5][21]. - Inventory: The rising futures market has stimulated downstream replenishment. Coke enterprise inventories have decreased, steel mill inventories have increased, and port inventories have decreased month - on - month, resulting in a decline in total coke inventories [5][25]. - Conclusion: Driven by strong macro sentiment and improved fundamentals, a short - term long strategy is recommended. The coke index is expected to trade in the range of 1500 - 1540 - 1670 [5]. Coking Coal - Supply: Previously shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production, but environmental inspections are still affecting output, leading to a slow recovery in domestic coal production. Mongolian coal customs clearance has gradually recovered after the Mongolian National Day [6][42]. - Demand: Coke production has increased month - on - month but remains at a historically low level, providing moderately weak support for coking coal demand in the short term [6][50]. - Inventory: Rising coking coal futures and spot prices have stimulated speculative demand and downstream replenishment. Coal mine inventories have continued to decline, while coke enterprise and steel mill coking coal inventories have increased month - on - month, with port inventories slightly decreasing and total coking coal inventories increasing [6][61]. - Conclusion: Driven by strong macro sentiment, the futures market has risen, leading to a significant improvement in spot sales and a joint increase in futures and spot prices. A short - term long strategy is recommended. The coking coal index is expected to trade in the range of 930 - 1060 [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coke Supply - Coke enterprise production has increased month - on - month, while steel mill coke production has decreased slightly, with total coke production rising slightly. As of July 18, the daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 642,100 tons (+130), and the daily average production of 247 steel mill coking plants was 470,900 tons (-100), with a total production of 1.113 million tons (+30) [13]. Profit - After the first round of price increase, coke enterprises' profits have recovered. As of July 18, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 43 yuan/ton (+20) [17]. Demand - Hot metal production unexpectedly increased, remaining at a relatively high level, providing strong support for coke demand. As of July 18, the daily average hot metal production was 2.4244 million tons (+2630); the weekly total production of five major steel products was 8.6819 million tons (-4530); the steel mill profitability rate was 60.17% (+0.43); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.89% (-0.99); and the blast furnace start - up rate was 83.46% (+0.31) [21]. Inventory - Coke enterprise inventories have decreased, steel mill inventories have increased, and port inventories have decreased month - on - month, resulting in a decline in total coke inventories. As of July 18, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 875,500 tons (-55,300); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.3899 million tons (+11,900); the total inventory of four major ports was 1.9911 million tons (-9700); and the total coke inventory was 9.2565 million tons (-53,100) [25]. Inventory Available Days - The inventory available days of steel mill coke have decreased month - on - month. The inventory available days of 247 steel mill sample coking plants were 11.46 days (-0.18) [29]. Basis - As of July 18, the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1401 yuan/ton. The basis of the January contract was - 162, the basis of the May contract was - 197, and the basis of the September contract was - 117. There is currently no basis - driven opportunity [32]. Calendar Spread - As of July 18, the spread between the September - January contracts was - 45, and the spread between the January - May contracts was - 35 [36]. Coking Coal Supply - Domestic coal production is recovering slowly due to environmental inspections, and Mongolian coal customs clearance is gradually resuming. As of July 18, the daily average production of 523 sample mines was 1.9288 million tons (+10,500), with an operating rate of 86.07% (+0.55); the daily average production of coal preparation plants was 53.38 tons (+0.79), with an operating rate of 62.85% (+0.53) [42]. Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance - Mongolian coal customs clearance has gradually recovered after the Mongolian National Day [46]. Demand - Coke production has increased month - on - month but remains at a historically low level, providing moderately weak support for coking coal demand in the short term. As of July 18, the total inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 7.9019 million tons (+377,500), with available days of 11.56 days (+0.53), corresponding to a daily coking coal consumption of 683,600 tons (+1400); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.911 million tons (+81,700), with available days of 12.63 days (+0.15), corresponding to a daily consumption of 626,400 tons (-1000); and the total daily consumption was 1.3099 million tons (+400) [50]. Coal Preparation Plant Inventory - As of July 18, the raw coal inventory of coal preparation plants was 2.9869 million tons (-20,800), and the clean coal inventory was 1.9154 million tons (-55,300) [54]. Inventory - Coal mine inventories have decreased significantly, while coke enterprise and steel mill inventories have increased. As of July 18, the port inventory was 321,500 tons (-140); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 7.911 million tons (+81,700); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 9.2911 million tons (+367,600); the clean coal inventory of 532 sample mines was 3.3907 million tons (-381,100); and the total coking coal inventory was 23.8078 million tons (+66,800). The available days of coking coal for 230 independent coking plants were 11.56 days (+0.53), and the available days of coking coal inventory for 247 steel enterprises were 12.63 days (+0.15) [61]. Basis - As of July 18, the warehouse - receipt price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal in Tangshan was 918 yuan/ton. The basis of the January contract was - 98, the basis of the May contract was - 114, and the basis of the September contract was - 49. There is currently no basis - driven opportunity [66]. Calendar Spread - As of July 18, the spread between the September - January contracts was - 49.5, and the spread between the January - May contracts was - 16. There is currently no calendar - spread opportunity [70].
煤焦周报:宏观情绪扰动较大双焦期现上涨-20250722
Mai Ke Qi Huo·2025-07-22 13:15