玻璃纯碱周报：玻璃供应预计上升，纯碱产量逐渐回升-20250722

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Glass - Supply pressure is rising as the output of previously ignited production lines gradually climbs. The weekly output of float glass last week was 1108400 tons (+0.14), and the national float glass operating rate was 75.63% (-0.05). - Downstream demand is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The number of downstream deep - processing factory order days on July 15 was 9.3 days (-0.2). However, the speculative demand has increased due to the rising market, and the apparent demand for glass has increased month - on - month. The weekly apparent demand for float glass last week was 24.3305 million weight boxes (+207000). - The inventory of glass factories decreased last week driven by speculative demand. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.939 million weight boxes (-2.163 million), and the inventory in Hubei factories was 6.12 million weight boxes (-660000). - The cost of glass decreased last week, while the profit increased. - The domestic anti - involution sentiment is high, and the bullish sentiment is strong, pushing the market to continue rising. There is strong supply pressure in the future. Short - term speculative demand drives the inventory reduction of glass factories. It is recommended to focus on short - term long ideas, and pay attention to the glass index operating range of 1090 - 1200 - 1250. The arbitrage FG09 - SA09 should be treated with a bullish idea. Pay attention to glass production, glass factory inventory, and glass spot prices [5]. 纯碱 - The maintenance of soda ash plants has ended, and the production of soda ash is gradually recovering. The production of soda ash last week was 733200 tons (+24300), including 318500 tons of light soda ash (+9700) and 414700 tons of heavy soda ash (+14600). - The production of photovoltaic glass has significantly declined and will continue to decline, leading to a downward expectation for the demand for heavy soda ash, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. The rising market last week drove up speculative demand, and the apparent demand for soda ash increased. The daily output of float and photovoltaic glass last week was 246075 tons. - The inventory of soda ash plants rebounded from a high level last week. With the recovery of supply and the implementation of photovoltaic production cuts, the inventory accumulation trend of soda ash plants is difficult to reverse. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers last week was 1.9056 million tons (+42200), including 783000 tons of light soda ash inventory (-8300) and 1.1226 million tons of heavy soda ash inventory (+50500). - According to Steel Union, the cost of soda ash increased slightly last week, and the profit showed mixed trends. Currently, the cost support for heavy soda ash in the East China region using the combined soda process is around 1240. - The supply of soda ash is gradually recovering, while the production of glass has significantly weakened, putting pressure on the demand side. There is strong inventory accumulation pressure in the long term. Currently, the macro - sentiment has a large impact on the market. It is advisable to wait and see for now. After the sentiment fades, pay attention to the idea of shorting on rallies. The operating range of the soda ash index is 1220 - 1350. The arbitrage FG09 - SA09 should be treated with a bullish idea. Pay attention to soda ash plant maintenance, soda ash plant inventory accumulation, and glass production [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - The output of float glass increased month - on - month, and the supply pressure increased. The output of previously ignited production lines gradually climbed, with the weekly output of float glass last week at 1108400 tons (+0.14), and the national float glass operating rate at 75.63% (-0.05) [11][13]. Demand - Speculative demand drove the apparent demand to increase month - on - month, while the number of deep - processing order days decreased month - on - month. On July 15, the number of downstream deep - processing factory order days was 9.3 days (-0.2), and downstream demand was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The rising market drove up speculative demand, and the weekly apparent demand for float glass last week was 24.3305 million weight boxes (+207000) [15][17]. Inventory - Short - term speculative demand rebounded, driving the inventory reduction of glass factories. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises last week was 64.939 million weight boxes (-2.163 million), and the inventory in Hubei factories was 6.12 million weight boxes (-660000) [19][20]. Cost and Profit - The cost decreased, and the profit increased. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1442 yuan/ton (-1); using coal - made gas as fuel was 1004 yuan/ton (-7); using petroleum coke as fuel was 1053 yuan/ton (-27). The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 178.9 yuan/ton (+4.21); using coal - made gas as fuel was 121.83 yuan/ton (+13.05); using petroleum coke as fuel was - 4.76 yuan/ton (+45.71) [29][31][35]. Basis and Calendar Spread - As of July 18, the glass 01 basis was - 125, the glass 05 basis was - 200, and the glass 09 basis was - 41. The basis had a weak driving force on the market. The glass 9 - 1 contract spread was - 84, and the glass 1 - 5 contract spread was - 75. There were no calendar spread opportunities [40][44]. Soda Ash Supply - The maintenance of soda ash plants ended, and the production of soda ash gradually recovered. The production of soda ash last week was 733200 tons (+24300), including 318500 tons of light soda ash (+9700) and 414700 tons of heavy soda ash (+14600) [51][53]. Demand - The production of photovoltaic glass significantly declined, putting pressure on the demand for heavy soda ash. The demand for light soda ash was relatively stable. The rising market last week drove up speculative demand, and the apparent demand for soda ash increased. The daily output of float and photovoltaic glass last week was 246075 tons, and the apparent demand for soda ash last week was 691000 tons (+36000), including 364200 tons of heavy soda ash apparent demand (+31500) and 326800 tons of light soda ash apparent demand (+4500) [55][58][62]. Inventory - The inventory of soda ash plants increased month - on - month, and the inventory accumulation trend was difficult to reverse. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers last week was 1.9056 million tons (+42200), including 783000 tons of light soda ash inventory (-8300) and 1.1226 million tons of heavy soda ash inventory (+50500) [64][66]. Profit and Cost - The cost increased slightly, and the profit showed mixed trends. Currently, the cost support for heavy soda ash in the East China region using the combined soda process is around 1240 [71][72]. Basis, Calendar Spread, and Price Spread - As of July 18, the soda ash 01 contract basis was - 59, the soda ash 05 contract basis was - 100, and the soda ash 09 contract basis was - 10. The basis had a weak driving force, and it was advisable to wait and see. The soda ash 9 - 1 contract spread was - 49, and the soda ash 1 - 5 contract spread was - 41. There were no calendar spread opportunities. The glass - soda ash 01 contract spread was - 100, the glass - soda ash 05 contract spread was - 66, and the glass - soda ash 09 contract spread was - 135. The arbitrage FG09 - SA09 should be treated with a bullish idea [79][83][88].