粕类日报：扰动因素仍存，盘面大幅走强-20250722

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a daily report on粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) dated July 22, 2025, issued by the Commodity Research Institute of Galaxy Futures [2] Group 2: Market Performance Futures and Spot Market - Today, the US soybean futures showed a volatile trend with limited changes. The domestic bean meal futures continued to rise rapidly, while the rapeseed meal's rise slowed down. The domestic bean meal spot market remained relatively loose, and the rapeseed meal demand weakened [2][5] - For bean meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 3104, 2760, and 3086 respectively, with changes of 17, 8, and 17. For rapeseed meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 2437, 2377, and 2736 respectively, with changes of 22, 11, and 9 [2] - The spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety futures spreads of bean meal and rapeseed meal all showed certain changes. For example, the 59 spread of bean meal was - 326 today, down 9 from yesterday, and the 91 spread of rapeseed meal was 299 today, down 13 from yesterday [2] Price Spreads - The spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal was 635 today, down 6 from yesterday; the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal was - 29 today, up 3 from yesterday; the spread between bean meal and sunflower meal was 536 today, down 3 from yesterday [2] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The new US soybean crop is generally bearish. As of the week ending July 20, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, down from 70% the previous week. The US soybean old - crop export inspection volume for the week ending July 17 was 365,000 tons. The US soybean crushing data in June was good, with the NOPA - reported soybean crushing volume at 185.709 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 5.76%, and the crushing profit rebounded [3] - Brazilian farmers' selling progress has accelerated but is still slow overall. Brazilian soybean crushing has improved recently, with the May soybean crushing volume continuing to rise month - on - month. The demand for bean meal and soybean oil is good, and the crushing profit has improved due to the rapid increase in soybean oil prices. However, crushing has limited impact on relieving supply pressure, and the demand improvement space is also limited. Brazil may still have room for export growth [3] - Argentina's domestic soybean crushing volume may improve slightly in the future as exports may decrease due to tariffs, but the current domestic crushing profit is average, so the improvement space is limited [3] Domestic Market - The domestic bean meal spot market remains loose. As of July 18, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3055 million tons, the operation rate was 64.81%, the soybean inventory was 6.4224 million tons, down 152,500 tons (2.32%) from last week but up 310,400 tons (5.08%) year - on - year. The bean meal inventory was 998,400 tons, up 111,100 tons (12.66%) from last week but down 262,200 tons (20.8%) year - on - year [5] - The domestic rapeseed meal demand has been gradually weakening. The operation rate of oil mills has decreased, but the overall supply is sufficient, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory remains high. As of the week ending July 18, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 59,000 tons, the operation rate this week was 15.72%, the rapeseed inventory was 162,000 tons, up 16,000 tons from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 12,000 tons, down 3,100 tons from last week [5] Group 4: Macro - analysis - The Sino - US negotiations in London have been completed, but the market lacks clear macro - guidance. The market is still worried about the uncertainty of future supply. Although the overall international trade situation has many uncertainties, the macro - disturbances are decreasing as the market stabilizes. China's long - term demand for US soybeans is still high, so the price is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term [6] Group 5: Logical Analysis - The domestic bean meal futures market continues to be strong, but the upward driving force is limited as the bullish factors from the US soybeans and cost side have decreased. The international market also lacks substantial bullish factors, and the US soybean's upward space is limited. The bean meal may face a certain downward pressure [7] - The fundamentals of rapeseed meal have changed little recently. The market focus is on the import of Australian rapeseed, which has great uncertainty in terms of import volume and price. The overall supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is relatively sufficient, and the demand is average, so the rapeseed meal market also faces pressure [7] - The monthly spreads of bean meal and rapeseed meal may face downward pressure, and the spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal will be volatile [7] Group 6: Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see [8] - For arbitrage, it is recommended to reduce and exit the RM91 reverse arbitrage position [8] - For options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 7: Soybean Pressing Profit - The report provides the soybean pressing profit data from different origins (Argentina and Brazil) and different shipping dates, including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, bean meal price, soybean oil price, and pressing profit. For example, the disk pressing profit of Argentine soybeans for October shipment is - 13.19 [9]