玉米淀粉日报-20250722

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The U.S. corn planting is finished, and the price is weak. With the reduction of Sino - U.S. tariffs, the U.S. corn price continues to decline, and weather conditions are likely to be a point of speculation. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, and the import price from Brazil in August is 2007 yuan. The domestic corn market has a complex situation: the spot price in the north is stable, the supply in North China is tight, the domestic breeding demand is weak, and the downstream feed enterprise inventory is high. The 09 corn futures will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and the basis will strengthen. The policy will have a greater impact later, and the upward space for the corn spot price is limited [5][7][9]. - For starch, the number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is strong. The starch inventory has increased this week, and the price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is strong. In the medium - to - long - term, due to weak demand, starch enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. The 09 starch futures will oscillate in a narrow range in the short - term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Data 3.1.1 Futures盘面 - Corn futures: The closing prices of C2601, C2605, and C2509 are 2250, 2294, and 2320 respectively, with price increases of 6, 10, and 6, and price increase rates of 0.27%, 0.44%, and 0.26% respectively. The trading volume of C2601 increased by 25.11%, C2605 decreased by 19.17%, and C2509 decreased by 7.84%. The open interest of C2601 increased by 2.16%, C2605 increased by 0.69%, and C2509 decreased by 2.94% [2]. - Starch futures: The closing prices of CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 are 2641, 2669, and 2664 respectively, with price increases of 24, 17, and 6, and price increase rates of 0.91%, 0.64%, and 0.23% respectively. The trading volume of CS2601 increased by 163.27%, CS2605 increased by 111.54%, and CS2509 increased by 4.42%. The open interest of CS2601 increased by 16.83%, CS2605 increased by 9.57%, and CS2509 decreased by 9.61% [2]. 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn spot: The prices in Qinggang, Jiajishenghua, Zhuchengxingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port are 2260, 2240, 2522, 2500, 2320, 2470, and 2480 respectively. The price in Shouguang increased by 10, Nantong Port increased by 20, and Guangdong Port increased by 10, while others remained stable. The basis is - 60, - 80, 202, 180, 0, 150, and 160 respectively [2]. - Starch spot: The prices of Longfeng, COFCO, Cargill, Yufeng, Jinyumi, Zhuchengxingmao, and Hengrengongmao are 2850, 2800, 2850, 3000, 2950, 2960, and 2960 respectively, all remaining stable. The basis is 181, 131, 181, 331, 281, 291, and 291 respectively [2]. 3.1.3 Spread - Corn inter - delivery spread: C01 - C05 is - 44 with a decrease of 4, C05 - C09 is - 26 with an increase of 4, and C09 - C01 is 70 with no change. - Starch inter - delivery spread: CS01 - CS05 is - 28 with an increase of 7, CS05 - CS09 is 5 with an increase of 11, and CS09 - CS01 is 23 with a decrease of 18. - Cross - variety spread: CS09 - C09 is 344 with no change, CS01 - C01 is 391 with an increase of 18, and CS05 - C05 is 375 with an increase of 7 [2]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - The U.S. corn planting is completed, and the price is weak. With the reduction of Sino - U.S. tariffs, the U.S. corn price continues to decline. The import profit of foreign corn is high, and the import price from Brazil in August is 2007 yuan. The northern port's flat - closing price is stable, the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is stable, the supply in North China is tight, the domestic breeding demand is weak, and the downstream feed enterprise inventory is high. The Northeast - North China corn price difference has widened, and wheat continues to substitute for corn. The 09 corn futures will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and the basis will strengthen. The policy will have a greater impact later, and the upward space for the corn spot price is limited [5][7][9]. 3.2.2 Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is strong. The starch inventory has increased this week, reaching 134.6 million tons, an increase of 0.9 million tons from last week, with a monthly increase rate of 2.83% and a year - on - year increase rate of 26.27%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is strong. In the medium - to - long - term, due to weak demand, starch enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. The 09 starch futures will oscillate in a narrow range in the short - term [8]. 3.3 Third Part: Corn Options - Option strategy: Enterprises with spot can close out the short position of corn call options, or they can try to accumulate short positions on rallies in the short - term [13]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - There are six figures, including the spot price of corn in various regions, the basis of corn 09 contract, the 9 - 1 spread of corn, the 9 - 1 spread of corn starch, the basis of corn starch 09 contract, and the spread of corn starch 09 contract [14][16][20].