资产配置日报：人声鼎沸-20250722

Market Performance - The domestic market shows a strong upward trend with major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 rising by 0.62% and 0.82% respectively, while the CSI Dividend Index increased by 1.65% driven by sectors such as hydropower, coal, and infrastructure [2][4] - The commodity market remains a focal point, with significant price increases in various products including glass and polysilicon, attributed to the anticipation of policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries [2][3] Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market is experiencing heightened bullish sentiment, with several products reaching their daily price limits, including glass, polysilicon, and coke, reflecting a strong market response to recent policy announcements [2][3] - The shift in price dynamics indicates a transition from immediate supply-demand factors to strong expectations driving prices, as evidenced by the reversal of basis in several commodities [3][6] Debt Market Analysis - The central bank is gradually tightening liquidity, with overnight rates dipping to 1.36%, while the issuance of medium-term lending facilities (MLF) remains substantial at 3.425 billion [4][5] - The long-term interest rate adjustments appear to be nearing their peak, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising to 1.69% and 1.91% respectively, raising concerns about inflation driven by rising commodity prices [6][7] Sector Performance - The coal sector has shown remarkable performance, with the SW Coal Index rising by 6.18%, driven by heightened expectations of production cuts and increased demand from infrastructure projects [8][9] - Consumer and technology sectors are also witnessing a resurgence, with indices such as the Wind White Wine Index and SW Beauty Care increasing by 2.83% and 1.57% respectively, indicating a potential for continued upward movement in these areas [8][9] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the current market conditions may present an opportunity for strategic investments in the debt market, particularly in short-duration bonds, as the liquidity environment remains favorable [4][7] - As the end of the month approaches, significant meetings may influence market trends, with expectations that policy developments could benefit sectors related to infrastructure and consumer goods [9]