可转债周报：“反内卷”历史回顾及当前关注-20250722

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints - "Anti-involution" policies are accelerating at the macro level, and inflation expectations are starting to bottom out. At the industry level, since June, "anti-involution" has been advanced mainly through self-discipline, and some industries have formed certain price increase expectations [4][7]. - By reviewing historical similar policy environments, the current "anti-involution" situation has similarities with the policy backgrounds in 2016 and 2021. Although this round may be advanced more from the industry self-discipline level, it is expected that the price increase expectations of key industries will be realized, and attention should be paid to the investment opportunities brought about by the improvement of profit expectations in related industries [4][23]. - Last week, the convertible bond market rose, and the valuation reached a high level. Five convertible bonds announced redemptions, and the total scale of bonds to be issued is about 7 billion yuan [1][24]. Summary by Directory 1. "Anti-involution" Historical Review and Current Concerns - Policy Progress: Since the Politburo meeting in July 2024 proposed to prevent "involutionary" vicious competition, to the official proposal by the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1, 2025, to govern the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity, the "anti-involution" policy has continued to exert force [4][7]. - Industry Trends: Since June, industries such as automobiles, photovoltaics, and most upstream cyclical industries have launched initiatives or collective production reduction plans by leading enterprises, and the market associates this round of "anti-involution" with the price increase logic under the production capacity optimization in 2016 and 2021 [4][7]. - Historical Comparison: In 2016, the supply - side reform focused on the coal and steel industries. In 2021, due to the demand for meeting the dual - control targets of energy consumption and the rise in coal prices, power and production restrictions were implemented in many places, and the PPI increased significantly. The current situation has similarities with these two historical periods, and the "anti-involution" this time may be more concentrated in the middle and lower reaches, with a high proportion of private enterprises [4][23]. 2. Market Review: Convertible Bonds Rose Weekly, and Valuation Reached a High Level - Weekly Market Conditions: Last week, the main stock indexes rose, and the convertible bond market followed suit. There are 477 issued but unexpired convertible bonds, with a balance of 648.241 billion yuan. Some bonds have not yet been listed for trading, and there are currently no bonds to be issued [24]. - Valuation Performance: The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds increased by 0.68% compared with the previous Friday. The premium rates of high - rated and large - scale convertible bonds increased. The convertible bond market's 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate increased by 1.32 pct compared with the previous Friday [32]. 3. Terms and Supply: Five Convertible Bonds Announced Redemptions, and the Total Scale of Bonds to be Issued is about 7 Billion Yuan - Terms: As of July 18, 5 convertible bonds announced redemptions, and Lingkang Convertible Bond's board of directors proposed a downward revision. Some bonds announced non - early redemptions, and some announced that they were expected to meet the redemption conditions. 4 convertible bonds announced no downward revisions, and 12 were expected to trigger downward revisions [1][50]. - Primary Market: Last week, Xizhen and Yongxi Convertible Bonds were listed, with a total scale of 1.685 billion yuan. This week, Libo Convertible Bond will be listed, with a scale of 750 million yuan. There were no new convertible bond issuances. Last week, Tonglian Precision added a board of directors' plan, and the total scale of bonds to be issued is about 7 billion yuan [1][53].