格林大华期货早盘提示-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn,生猪, and eggs are all rated as "区间" (Range) [1][3] 2. Core Views - For corn, in the short - term, the spot price has both support and pressure, and the bullish sentiment on the futures market weakens; in the medium - term, the supply pattern may tighten, and the spot price will tend to be stronger; in the long - term, policy grain release and wheat substitution may limit the price increase [1] - For pigs, in the short - term, the price may fluctuate, with the national average price of 14 yuan/kg as a valid support; in the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, making it difficult for the price to rise continuously; in the long - term, the production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [3] - For eggs, in the short - term, the price has basically confirmed the bottom and may strengthen, but a sharp increase is difficult; in the medium - term, there may be a phased rebound in August - September, but the high point should not be over - optimistic; in the long - term, if the profit turns positive in the third quarter, the supply pressure may reappear in the fourth quarter [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn Market Review - Last night, the corn futures fluctuated weakly. As of the night - session close, the 2509 contract fell 0.95% to 2303 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - Yesterday, the spot price was stable with a slight increase. The prices at north - south ports were stable, and the purchase price of deep - processing enterprises increased slightly. As of July 22, the corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1686 lots to 175657 lots. The wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was 30 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. On the 22nd, CGSGB sold 198558 tons of imported corn with a 27% transaction rate, and will organize another sale of 195017 tons on the 25th [1] Market Logic - Short - term: The spot price has both support and pressure, and the bullish sentiment on the futures market weakens. Medium - term: The supply pattern may tighten, and the spot price will tend to be stronger. Long - term: Policy grain release and wheat substitution may limit the price increase [1] Trading Strategy - Long - term: Range operation; Medium - term: Low - buying strategy; Short - term: Verify support and test resistance. The previous report's suggestions on the 2509 contract were verified by the market [1] Pigs Market Review - Yesterday, the main contracts of live - hog futures fluctuated strongly. The LH2509 contract rose 0.21% to 14380 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 contract rose 0.69% to 13960 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On the 22nd, the national average live - hog price was 14.34 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day. In June 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40430000, up 0.1% year - on - year. The inventory of medium - and large - sized pigs in June decreased by 0.8% from the previous month. On the 22nd, the price difference between fat and standard hogs was 0.15 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. The weekly average slaughter weight on July 17 was 124.56 kg, down 0.18 kg from the previous week. On the 22nd, the number of live - hog futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 284 lots [3] Market Logic - Short - term: The price may fluctuate. Medium - term: There is an expected increase in supply in the second half of the year, making it difficult for the price to rise continuously. Long - term: The production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [3] Trading Strategy - Long - term: High - selling strategy; Medium - term: Range operation; Short - term: Verify support and then strengthen to test resistance. Suggestions for breeding enterprises to consider selling - hedging opportunities [3] Eggs Market Review - Yesterday, the egg futures fluctuated. The JD2509 contract fell 0.08% to 3621 yuan/500kg [3] Important Information - Yesterday, the egg price was stable with a slight increase. The inventory level decreased slightly. The average price of old hens increased. In June, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.34 billion, and the theoretical estimated value for July is 1.352 billion [3] Market Logic - Short - term: The price has basically confirmed the bottom and may strengthen, but a sharp increase is difficult. Medium - term: There may be a phased rebound in August - September, but the high point should not be over - optimistic. Long - term: If the profit turns positive in the third quarter, the supply pressure may reappear in the fourth quarter [3] Trading Strategy - The 09 contract follows a short - long and long - short strategy. If the elimination in the third quarter is less than expected, consider short - selling opportunities in the 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 contracts [3][4]