综合晨报：美日达成15%的对等关税协议，焦炭第二轮提涨-20250723

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices rose by over 1%, influenced by domestic stimulus expectations for commodities and overseas concerns about US tariff implementation and the Fed's independence [1][12]. - Strong risk appetite may disrupt the bond market in the next 1 - 2 months, with a risk of the futures' oscillation center shifting downwards. However, there is no long - term adjustment risk for the bond market [2][13]. - Coke had a second round of price hikes. Recently, coking coal was affected by macro and policy factors, with strong market sentiment, but risks should be noted after a significant increase [3][23]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term due to policy expectation risks and inventory accumulation concerns, and it is advisable to wait and see [4][44]. - Oil prices oscillated downward despite a decline in API crude oil inventory [5][51]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump stated that Powell's term has only eight months left and criticized his interest - rate policy, calling for a rate cut of at least 3 percentage points [11]. - Trump announced that Japan will pay a 15% reciprocal tariff to the US, and Japan will invest $550 billion in the US, with the US getting 90% of the profits. Gold prices rose over 1%, driven by domestic stimulus expectations and overseas concerns. It is recommended that short - term gold prices are likely to be strong with increased volatility [12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 22. Sentiment is driving the market. It is expected that strong risk appetite will disrupt the bond market in the next 1 - 2 months, but there is no long - term adjustment risk. Short - term trading long positions can be closed after the Politburo meeting [13][14]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of July 19, Brazil's cotton harvesting progress was 16.7%, 3.1 percentage points higher than the previous week but 3.8% slower than last year. In 2025, China's new cotton is expected to have a yield of 158.7 kg/mu, a 2.5% increase. As of July 20, US cotton's budding and boll - setting rates were slower than last year, but the excellent rate was higher. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up Zhengzhou cotton prices [15][16][17]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - MPOC expects the price of crude palm oil in August to be between 4,100 - 4,300 ringgit/ton. The oil market was oscillating, and it is recommended to buy on dips or sell call options on the 09 contract [18][19]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In Q2 2025, the growth rate of real estate loans rebounded. Steel prices rose mainly due to the increase in coking coal and coke prices. It is expected that steel prices will be strong in the short term, but there are potential risks after August [20][21]. 2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Coke had a second round of price hikes. The impact of checking for over - production in coal mines is limited. Coking coal supply recovery is slower than expected, and demand is strong. However, risks should be noted after a significant increase [22][23]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - On July 22, corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong had theoretical losses, and the losses are expected to continue or expand, with the operating rate remaining low [24][25]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - On July 22, the成交 rate of imported corn auctions increased. Old - crop corn is expected to have little fluctuation, and it is recommended to hold a small number of new - crop short positions and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [26]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - New Hope's piglet stocking in June 2025 was about 1.3 million. Spot prices have been falling, while futures are relatively stable. It is recommended to buy the 09 contract on dips and wait for hedging opportunities on the November contract [27][28]. 2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On July 22, the price of steam coal in northern ports was stable. With the implementation of the coal over - production check policy and the peak summer season, coal prices are expected to be strong in the short term [29]. 2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The production plan of household air conditioners in August 2025 decreased by 7.1% year - on - year. Iron ore prices continued to rise, but they are in an over - valued area, and it is advisable to wait and see [30]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A Japanese - Korean joint venture plans to build a polysilicon plant in Malaysia. The polysilicon capacity storage plan is progressing slowly. It is recommended that polysilicon enterprises sell at or above the benchmark cost. Long positions are advised to consider taking profits gradually [33][34]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - In June, China's export of primary polysiloxane increased month - on - month. The supply recovery of industrial silicon is slower than expected, and it is expected to be strong in the short term. It is recommended to take a bullish view in the short term and observe the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang [35][36]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On July 21, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount. The fundamentals of lead have improved, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to buy on dips [37][38]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On July 21, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount. Zinc supply is expected to increase, and demand is differentiated. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and pay attention to near - month spread arbitrage [39][41]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Nornickel lowered its 2025 nickel, copper, and palladium production forecasts. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term due to policy and inventory factors, and it is advisable to wait and see [42][44]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Nornickel's nickel production in Q2 2025 increased by 9% quarter - on - quarter. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to follow the non - ferrous metals sector and be strong, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium term, it is recommended to look for opportunities to sell high [45][47]. 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - There are disputes over a lithium project in Congo. The market is focused on supply - side disturbances. It is recommended to reduce positions or wait and see unilaterally and focus on 9 - 11 spread operations [48][50]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - API crude oil and gasoline inventories decreased, while refined oil inventory increased. Oil prices are expected to remain oscillating in the short term [51][52]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On July 22, the CEA closed at 73.30 yuan/ton. The CEA price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and enterprises with quota needs can buy cautiously on dips [53][55]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On July 22, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong declined. The upward momentum of the caustic soda futures may weaken [56][57]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was stable. The pulp futures increased due to policy and coal price factors, but the upward space is limited [58]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - From July 1 - 20, 2025, South Korea's total benzene exports were 162,015 tons. Styrene prices oscillated strongly. It is recommended to wait for a better entry point for pure benzene and observe the macro - policy impact on styrene [59][60]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder increased. PVC futures followed the market's upward trend, but the fundamentals are weakening, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing up [61]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market was stable and strong. The futures price rose significantly. It is risky to short in the short term, and it is necessary to wait for further policy guidance [63][64]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market increased. The glass futures rose due to supply - side policy expectations. It is recommended to be cautious about unilateral operations and focus on arbitrage strategies such as going long on glass and short on soda ash [65][66]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories' export prices were mostly stable with partial slight adjustments. The industry plans to cut production in July, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to expand processing fees on dips [67][69].