软商品日报：作物状况改善，棉花震荡为主-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Sideways" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases, which require early prevention. Internationally, continued attention should be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1] - Cotton: Most cotton-producing areas in the country have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high-temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off-season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Overview - External Market Quotes: On July 21 - 22, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 0.61% from $16.36 to $16.26, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.25% from $68.09 to $68.26 [3] - Spot Prices: From July 21 - 22, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased by 0.17% from 6060.0 to 6050.0, remained unchanged in Kunming at 5920.0. The cotton index 328 decreased by 0.26% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased by 0.65% from 15400.0 to 15500.0 [3] - Spread Overview: From July 21 - 22, 2025, most sugar and cotton spreads changed, with some increasing and some decreasing. For example, SR01 - 05 decreased by 9.26% from 54.0 to 49.0, and CF01 - 05 decreased by 11.11% from 45.0 to 40.0 [3] - Import Prices: The price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.45 from July 21 - 22, 2025 [3] - Profit Margins: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1613.0 from July 21 - 22, 2025 [3] - Options: Information on various sugar and cotton option contracts, including implied volatility and historical volatility, is provided [3] - Warehouse Receipts: From July 21 - 22, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 0.36% from 21437.0 to 21359.0, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.68% from 9501.0 to 9436.0 [3] 3.2 Company Introduction - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., a large - scale futures company in China. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships in multiple futures exchanges and is an observer member of relevant associations [8]