今日早评-20250723

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The market sentiment for various commodities and financial products shows different trends due to a combination of supply - demand factors, policy expectations, and macro - economic conditions. Some products are expected to be strong in the short - term, while others face downward pressure or uncertainty [1][2][4][5][6][8][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ maintains an increasing production stance, causing concerns about demand slowdown and supply increase, leading to a weak and volatile market. High - level short - selling operations are recommended [4]. - PTA: With average device maintenance, expected new production, strong downstream polyester factory reduction expectations in July, and weak terminal demand, the supply - demand outlook is weak, and the driving force is also weak [4]. - Rubber: Weather disturbances in production areas keep raw material prices firm, and the demand side is improving. However, due to difficult inventory reduction, there is still upward pressure on prices in the short - term. A cautious short - long approach is recommended [5]. Metals - Silver: The conflict between the Trump administration and the Fed over interest rate cuts creates uncertainty. The decline of the US dollar index drives gold up, and silver follows. A bullish outlook is maintained before the end - of - July interest rate meeting [8]. - Gold: US trade negotiations with other countries increase global economic downward pressure and volatility in tariffs, increasing risk - aversion sentiment. The decline of the US dollar index is beneficial to gold. Attention should be paid to the US dollar - gold seesaw effect [8]. Industrial Goods - Coking Coal: The supply is expected to increase, and downstream replenishment is active. With the fermentation of anti - involution policy expectations, the short - term futures market is strong. The reference support level for the 2509 contract is 980 yuan/ton [1]. - Silicon Iron: Steel production remains high, and the demand for silicon iron is resilient. The supply - demand gap is narrowing, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term [2]. Agricultural Products - Not covered in the provided content. Financial Products - Short - term Treasury Bonds: The capital market becomes more liquid, and short - term interest rates are expected to decline, which is beneficial to short - term bonds. However, the bond market is still affected by the stock - bond seesaw [6]. - Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds: Policy support for infrastructure construction is expected to increase in the second half of the year, which is negative for the bond market. The main logic of the bond market is the stock - bond seesaw [6].