金信期货日刊-20250723

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - On July 22, 2025, the domestic commodity futures market witnessed a significant event as the main contracts of glass, soda ash, and coking coal reached their daily limit up, attracting extensive market attention. In the short - term, these varieties may maintain their strength [3]. - The A - share market's three major indices opened higher and closed with a mid -阳线. The coal market was further stimulated by the "anti - involution" in the coal industry, and the main uptrend of the market continued to move upwards in a volatile manner [7][8]. - Although gold has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Currently, it has adjusted to an important support level, and it is advisable to buy on dips [11][12]. - Iron ore has reached a new high, and the uptrend continues due to an improved macro - environment, increased risk appetite, high molten iron production, and a positive feedback repair in the industrial chain [15][16]. - Glass has seen continuous rallies, with its recent trend driven by news and sentiment. The supply side has not experienced significant losses and cold repairs, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly [19][20]. - The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, which is beneficial for the early performance of the Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hotspot Focus - Glass: Last week, the weekly domestic production increased slightly, inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks, the profit of different production processes is being repaired, the spot sales rate in mainstream areas reached 100% or more, and the average price rose by 10 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton [3]. - Soda ash: The inventory is at a historical high, and the fundamental situation is poor. This increase is mainly driven by glass and short - covering [3]. - Coking coal: Supply is affected by mine accidents and policy regulations. When supply shortages coincide with increased demand from the downstream steel industry, prices tend to rise. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's announcement of a ten - industry stable growth plan has boosted market sentiment and attracted a large amount of capital, driving prices to the daily limit [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The coal "anti - involution" has further stimulated the market, and the main uptrend of the market continues to move upwards in a volatile manner [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. However, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and it is currently at an important support level, suitable for buying on dips [11][12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Technically, it reached a new high today, and the uptrend continues. The improved macro - environment, increased risk appetite, high molten iron production, and positive feedback repair in the industrial chain support the upward movement [15][16]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The supply side has not experienced significant losses and cold repairs, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The recent trend is driven by news and sentiment, and the continuous rallies indicate a continuation of the uptrend [19][20]. Technical Analysis - Palm Oil - The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, which is beneficial for the early performance of the Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [23].