五矿期货农产品早报-20250723

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Agricultural Products Morning Report of Wukuang Futures on July 23, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product sectors including soybeans, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs [1] Group 2: Soybean and Meal Core View - The U.S. soybean night session declined on Tuesday. Good North American weather limits the upside, but with slightly low valuation, strong old - crop sales, and biodiesel policies supporting demand, it is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal spot prices were mixed on Tuesday, with transactions being average and提货 reaching 190,000 tons, and downstream inventory days exceeding last year's level. The domestic soybean crushing volume was 2.3055 million tons last week and is expected to be 2.2351 million tons this week [2] Transaction Strategy - The external soybean import cost is oscillating due to low valuation, EPA policy support, and single - source supply from Brazil from September to January, but the overall soybean or protein supply is still in surplus. The domestic soybean meal market has low valuation, short - term high supply, active downstream提货, and medium - to - high inventory days for feed enterprises. However, the soybean procurement from September to January has cost support due to Sino - U.S. tariffs. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, and wait for progress on Sino - U.S. tariffs and new supply - side drivers [4] Group 3: Oils Important Information - High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 to 10 are expected to increase by 5.31% - 12%, from June 1 to 15 are expected to decrease by 5.29% - 6.16% month - on - month, and from June 1 to 20 are expected to decrease by 3.57% - 7.31% month - on - month. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 35.28% from July 1 to 10, 17.06% from July 1 to 15, and 6.19% from July 1 to 20 in 2025. As of July 15, 2025, India's total vegetable oil inventory at ports has risen to 855,679 metric tons, a surge of 18% in just half a month compared to June 30 [6] Core View - The domestic palm oil oscillated on Tuesday. With a positive sentiment in the commodity market, the net long positions of foreign capital in the three major oils may start to decline. The EPA policy, the long - term B50 policy expectation, and limited Southeast Asian supply boost the annual operation center of oils, but the Southeast Asian palm oil production has recovered significantly year - on - year, and there are still negative factors. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7] Transaction Strategy - The recent optimistic sentiment in the commodity market has pushed the palm oil price to continue rising. The U.S. biodiesel policy draft exceeding expectations supports the oil price center. If demand countries maintain normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remains at a neutral level from July to September, the inventory in producing areas may remain stable, and there may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upside is restricted by factors such as annual - level production increase expectations, high palm oil production in producing areas, undetermined RVO rules, and weak edible demand in major demand countries. It should be viewed as oscillating [9] Group 4: Sugar Important Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. The closing price of the September contract was 5,823 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 6,010 - 6,090 yuan/ton, down 0 - 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5,820 - 5,860 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; processing sugar mills' mainstream quotes were in the range of 6,180 - 6,220 yuan/ton, down 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between Guangxi spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2509) was 187 yuan/ton. In June 2025, China imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. From January to June 2025, China imported 459,100 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 492,400 tons. As of June in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, China imported 1.0983 million tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 269,500 tons [11] Transaction Strategy - China is currently in the best import profit window in the past five years, and the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. Assuming that the external price does not rebound significantly, the Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to decline [12] Group 5: Cotton Important Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price was weakly oscillating. The closing price of the September contract was 14,225 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton or 0.28% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked delivery price was 15,330 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked delivery price and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2509) was 1,105 yuan/ton. According to the latest weekly crop growth report data from USDA, as of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 57%, up 3 percentage points from the previous week, rising for the fourth consecutive week and reaching the highest level in the same period in four years; the squaring rate was 71%, up 10 percentage points from the previous week and 8 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the boll - setting rate was 33%, up 10 percentage points from the previous week and 7 percentage points lower than the same period last year [14] Transaction Strategy - Although the Sino - U.S. trade agreement has not been finalized, the Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded to the level before the announcement of U.S. equivalent tariffs, partially reflecting positive expectations. In terms of fundamentals, the recent downstream consumption is average. The market expects that sliding - scale import quotas may be increased from July to August, which is a potential negative factor for cotton prices [15] Group 6: Eggs Important Information - National egg prices were mostly stable, with a few rising and a few slightly falling. The average price in the main producing areas rose 0.04 yuan to 3.23 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained unchanged at 2.7 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao rose 0.11 yuan to 3.18 yuan/jin. The remaining egg inventory is not large, the demand in the sales areas has slightly improved, and dealers' purchasing enthusiasm is okay. The egg market trading is stable, and today's egg prices are expected to mostly rise and a few remain stable [17][18] Transaction Strategy - High temperatures have led to a decline in egg - laying rates, alleviating supply pressure and igniting market stocking sentiment. The spot price bottomed out earlier and the increase was higher than expected, causing short - sellers in the near - month contracts to flee. However, long - sellers lack confidence under the high premium, and the price will mainly oscillate in the short term, lacking a clear trend. For contracts after September, the earlier bottoming of the spot price further reduces the sentiment of culling hens. With limited cost changes and the expectation of continuous increase in theoretical supply, continue to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds, and be aware of the risks of spot price fluctuations and large open interest [19] Group 7: Pigs Important Information - Domestic pig prices generally fell yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped 0.05 yuan to 14.48 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 13.57 yuan/kg. Farmers are actively selling pigs, and the market supply is sufficient. High temperatures and rainfall have suppressed pork demand. Today's pig prices may be stable or decline [21] Transaction Strategy - In the short term, the increase in basic supply is limited, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation. After digesting the selling pressure in the middle of the month, the spot price may rise again in August, but it is difficult to reach a new high. The futures price has obvious support at the valuation end due to the discount. For the September contract, focus on buying on dips. Starting from the fourth quarter of the second half of the year, the inventory accumulation period will gradually begin. The replenishment of散户 pens and the increase in basic supply will add pressure to the pre - Spring Festival market. However, the futures price has already factored in the expectation in advance, and the premium for far - month contracts is insufficient. For off - season contracts such as November, wait for short - selling or hedging opportunities after the price rebounds, and avoid excessive short - selling [22]