中辉有色观点-20250723

Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish [1] - Silver: Bullish [1] - Copper: Bullish [1] - Zinc: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - The market is influenced by factors such as Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, trade negotiations, and geopolitical uncertainties, leading to different trends in various metals [1][3] - Gold and silver are likely to rise due to trade uncertainties and the potential for Fed rate cuts [1][2][3] - Copper is expected to perform well in the long - term due to global copper mine shortages and strategic importance [1][6][7] - Zinc supply is abundant, limiting its upside potential in the short - term, with a long - term supply - increase and demand - decrease outlook [1][8][9] - Aluminum and nickel prices may experience short - term rebounds, but are affected by factors such as inventory and seasonal demand [1][10][11][12][13] - Lithium carbonate is expected to rise due to supply - side disruptions [1][14][15] Summary by Metal Gold and Silver - 行情回顾: The US trade negotiations with Brazil and the EU are not going smoothly, and the approaching tariff deadline on August 1st has increased the safe - haven sentiment for gold and silver [2] - 基本逻辑: Trump pressures the Fed to cut interest rates, the US has reached trade agreements with some countries, and there are uncertainties in the global economic and political situation. The Fed rate cuts may exceed expectations, and central banks continue to buy gold, supporting the long - term upward trend of gold [3] - 策略推荐: Gold has strong support around 770 - 775, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. Silver has strong support at 9250, and a bullish approach is recommended [4] Copper - 行情回顾: Shanghai copper has rebounded strongly and is consolidating around the 80,000 - yuan mark [6] - 产业逻辑: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, electrolytic copper production has increased, domestic social inventory has decreased seasonally, downstream开工率 has rebounded, and green copper demand in power and automotive sectors has maintained resilience [6] - 策略推荐: With Trump's pressure on the Fed and positive short - term macro - sentiment, it is recommended to hold existing copper long positions. In the long - term, copper is still expected to rise. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [79000, 81000], and for London copper is [9700, 10000] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - 行情回顾: Shanghai zinc is oscillating at a high level, testing the pressure of the upper resistance [8] - 产业逻辑: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is abundant, new smelting capacity is being released, and the processing fees for zinc concentrates are rising. The demand side is affected by the high - temperature season and the consumption off - season, and downstream enterprises are hesitant to buy at high prices [8] - 策略推荐: Due to cost support, low inventory, and macro - sentiment stimulation, zinc has rebounded. It is recommended to hold existing long positions cautiously, not to chase the rise blindly. In the long - term, wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22800, 23200], and for London zinc is [2750, 2950] US dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - 行情回顾: Aluminum prices continue to rebound, and alumina also shows a rebound trend [10] - 产业逻辑: For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity has increased, the cost has risen, the inventory has slightly increased, and the downstream processing industry's开工率 has decreased in the off - season. For alumina, there are disturbances in Guinea's bauxite supply, and the supply of spot alumina is relatively tight in the short - term [11] - 策略推荐: It is recommended to wait and see with Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the change in aluminum ingot inventory. The main operating range for Shanghai aluminum is [20300 - 21200], and alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11] Nickel - 行情回顾: Nickel prices continue to rebound, and stainless steel also shows a rebound trend [12] - 产业逻辑: For nickel, there are uncertainties in the overseas environment, the price of Philippine nickel ore may decline, and the domestic nickel supply - demand situation has improved slightly. For stainless steel, the production reduction is weakening, and the inventory pressure is emerging again in the off - season [13] - 策略推荐: It is recommended to wait and see with nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [122000 - 125000] [13] Lithium Carbonate - 行情回顾: The main contract LC2509 has increased in position and reached a new high [14] - 产业逻辑: In the spot market, lithium salt producers are more willing to sell, and the basis has weakened. The total inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, and the demand growth in the new energy vehicle market has slowed down. However, there are many supply - side disruptions, and the futures market has priced in the improvement of the supply - demand situation in advance [15] - 策略推荐: It is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a range of [71800 - 74000] [15]