Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report Core Views - Soybean Meal: It is expected to trade in a wide range. Short - term rebound should be treated with caution. In the short - term, under the dual influence of weak fundamentals and Sino - US trade tariff cost support, it will show a wide - range market. The main trading range is [3050, 3120] [1]. - Rapeseed Meal: It is also expected to trade in a wide range. Short - term trend is bullish, but chasing long positions requires careful position and risk control management. Pay attention to the improvement of China - Canada relations and China - Australia progress. The main trading range is [2670, 2800] [1]. - Palm Oil: Be cautious when chasing long positions. Although there are some bullish factors, considering the supply season in Southeast Asia and the large inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil, it is difficult to force a short - squeeze. The main trading range is [8850, 9150] [1]. - Cotton: Be cautious about shorting. Although the short - term bullish sentiment of funds is strong, the conditions for a short - squeeze are not complete. Be vigilant against the negative feedback from weakening downstream demand. The main trading range is [14100, 14350] [1]. - Red Dates: Be cautious about shorting. The expected production reduction is gradually being disproven, and the high inventory makes it difficult for the price to rise. However, due to the relatively low price level, the downside space is limited [1]. - Hogs: Be cautiously bullish. The short - term price is supported by slow - down in slaughter rhythm and farmers' reluctance to sell, but there is still supply pressure in the medium and long - term. Consider going long on the 01 contract at low prices or using a cross - year reverse spread strategy [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Supply and Demand: According to CPC's monthly outlook, the planting weather for US soybeans in July was generally smooth, and South America had a bumper harvest. In China, ports and oil mills are in the inventory - building stage, and feed companies' inventory is higher than last year, with reduced enthusiasm for further restocking [1]. - Price Movement: The news of Indonesia's commitment to purchase $4.5 billion of US agricultural products boosted the price of US soybeans. China's soybean meal prices continued to rise. The futures price of the main contract closed at 3086 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [1][2]. - Market Strategy: Short - term rebound should be treated with caution. When approaching or above the previous high, continue to chase long positions with proper position and risk control management [1]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply and Demand: Global rapeseed production has recovered year - on - year, but soil moisture in Canada is dry. In China, the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in oil mills has decreased month - on - month, but is still high year - on - year. From July to September, rapeseed imports will decrease significantly year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal supports the price [1]. - Price Movement: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2736 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. The short - term trend is bullish [1][4]. - Market Strategy: Short - term trend is bullish, but chasing long positions requires careful position and risk control management. Pay attention to the improvement of China - Canada relations and China - Australia progress [1]. Palm Oil - Supply and Demand: The July USDA supply - demand report lowered the global palm oil ending inventory for the new year. India's palm oil imports in June increased by 61.19% month - on - month. However, the export and production data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of this month were bearish [1]. - Price Movement: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8926 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The domestic palm oil price continued to rise [1][8]. - Market Strategy: Be cautious when chasing long positions. Considering the supply season in Southeast Asia and the large inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil, it is difficult to force a short - squeeze [1]. Cotton - Supply and Demand: In the US, the soil moisture in cotton - growing areas is still good, and the excellent - good rate is increasing. In China, the actual sown area of cotton has increased, and the inventory of domestic commercial cotton has decreased. However, the downstream textile enterprises' orders are weakening, and the finished product inventory is increasing [1][13][14]. - Price Movement: The main contract CF2509 closed at 14225 yuan/ton, up 0.28%. The ICE cotton price rose 0.23% to 68.26 cents/pound, and the domestic spot price fell 0.30% to 15549 yuan/ton [11][13]. - Market Strategy: Be cautious about shorting. Although the short - term bullish sentiment of funds is strong, the conditions for a short - squeeze are not complete. Be vigilant against the negative feedback from weakening downstream demand [1]. Red Dates - Supply and Demand: The growth of new - season jujube trees is good, and the expected production reduction is gradually being disproven. The old - crop inventory is at a historical high, and the inventory reduction is slow. The demand is weak in the off - season [1][17]. - Price Movement: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10490 yuan/ton, up 0.77% [16][17]. - Market Strategy: Be cautious about shorting. The upside pressure on the price is large, but the downside space is limited due to the relatively low price level [1]. Hogs - Supply and Demand: In the short - term, the slow - down in slaughter rhythm and farmers' reluctance to sell support the price. In the medium - term, the number of piglets born from January to May 2025 increased, indicating potential growth in slaughter volume in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the industry still has over - capacity [1][19]. - Price Movement: The main contract Lh2509 closed at 14380 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The domestic spot price remained stable at 14810 yuan/ton [18][19]. - Market Strategy: Be cautiously bullish. The 09 contract may face a slight correction risk, while the 01 contract is relatively strong. Consider going long at low prices or using a cross - year reverse spread strategy [1].
豆粕周报：主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力-20250723
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-23 01:36