PVC：反弹难持续

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The short - term rebound of PVC is difficult to sustain, and it is a range - bound market for the time being. The high - production and high - inventory structure is hard to ease, and the market will still short the chlor - alkali profit later [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Fundamental Data - The futures price of the 09 contract is 5260, the East China spot price is 5080, the basis is - 180, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 114 [1] Spot News - The domestic PVC market price continues to rise. Affected by the supply reduction expectation due to black industry policy concerns, the prices of related industrial sectors rise significantly in the afternoon, driving up the futures price. However, the supply - demand contradiction in the spot fundamentals persists, resulting in dull market transactions. The expected price range of East China calcium carbide - type five - grade PVC for spot cash warehouse pick - up is 5000 - 5150 yuan/ton [1] Market Condition Analysis - The anti - involution sentiment at the macro level is strong, especially in the petrochemical and chemical industries. The impact on PVC may be relatively limited. Recently, the trend of coking coal and other varieties is strong, and the concentrated exit of PVC short - sellers causes a stampede, leading to a strong market trend, but the rebound is hard to sustain from the fundamental perspective [1] Fundamental Situation - Currently, the northwest chlor - alkali integrated plants still have profits. In the second half of the year, there is insufficient driving force for supply - side production cuts, and the high - production and high - inventory structure of PVC is difficult to ease [2] High - Production Structure - PVC maintenance volume is lower than the same period in 2023, and the high - production pattern continues. The chlor - alkali cost declines, and the demand for caustic soda in 2025 provides good support, maintaining high profits. The chlor - alkali industry chain compensates for chlorine with alkali, increasing the difficulty of large - scale production cuts due to losses. Moreover, there will be more capacity put into production in the future, with an expected 1.1 million tons of new capacity to be put into production in July - August [2] High - Inventory Pressure - The pressure of high inventory persists, and export demand can only relieve it periodically. In 2025, the competition pressure in the PVC export market increases, and exports are still affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. The domestic demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises have low inventory - building willingness [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]