Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, hurricane expectations, and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A target price of $70/barrel for WTI in the September hurricane season is set, and short - term long positions with profit - taking on dips are recommended [2]. - For methanol, the market is currently driven by news, with increased volatility and difficulty in operation. The upstream开工 continues to decline, and overseas supply disruptions are mostly priced in. The demand side is weak overall, and the upside is limited in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see after the sharp rise [4]. - Regarding urea, although affected by short - term sentiment, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable. The price has support at the bottom but is also suppressed by high supply at the top. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, NR and RU have been rising strongly, and the overall commodity market has strong bullish sentiment. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the second half of the year, with a medium - term bullish view. Short - term risks of pull - backs should be guarded against [8][11]. - For PVC, the pessimistic fundamental expectations have improved due to the extension of anti - dumping in India, but there are still pressures in supply - demand and valuation. The price is strong in the short term under the stimulation of anti - dumping extension and anti - involution sentiment [11]. - For benzene ethylene, the cost - side support has returned strongly, and the BZN spread is expected to repair. The price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [12][13]. - For polyethylene, the cost - side support has returned, but due to high trader inventories and weak seasonal demand, the price is expected to oscillate downward [15]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand in the off - season, the price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [16]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. With high - level downstream PTA load and low inventory, there is limited short - term negative feedback from the polyester and terminal sectors. It is expected to continue de - stocking in the third quarter, and short - term long - position opportunities following crude oil on dips are worthy of attention [18][20]. - For PTA, supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and demand is under pressure in the off - season. However, due to low inventory and improved processing fees, the negative feedback pressure is small. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX on dips [21]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, but short - term inventory de - stocking at a low level provides support for the valuation [22]. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - Market Quotes: On July 23, 2025, WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.71, or 1.06%, at $66.36; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.42, or 0.61%, at $68.67; INE main crude oil futures closed down 23.40 yuan, or 4.35%, at 514.7 yuan [1]. - Inventory Data: Fujeirah port's weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.02 million barrels to 8.30 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.23 million barrels to 2.18 million barrels, a 9.44% decrease; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.51 million barrels to 9.99 million barrels, a 4.87% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.72 million barrels to 20.47 million barrels, a 3.41% decrease [1]. Methanol - Market Quotes: On July 22, the 09 contract rose 46 yuan/ton to 2411 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 14 yuan/ton, with a basis of +1 [4]. - Fundamentals: The upstream开工 continued to decline, and overseas plant开工 returned to medium - high levels. The port olefin load increased this week, while traditional demand was in the off - season. The overall demand was weak, and the downstream profit margin was still low [4]. Urea - Market Quotes: On July 22, the 09 contract rose 5 yuan/ton to 1817 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +3 [6]. - Fundamentals: Domestic开工 decreased slightly, and enterprise profits were at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizers started to pick up, and export container - loading continued, with rising port inventories [6]. Rubber - Market Quotes: NR and RU continued to rise strongly [8]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia may lead to production cuts, the seasonal trend is favorable in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [12]. PVC - Market Quotes: The PVC09 contract rose 142 yuan to 5260 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 5080 (+40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 180 (- 102) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 114 (+5) yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamentals: The cost side remained stable, the overall开工 rate increased, the downstream开工 decreased, factory inventories decreased, and social inventories increased. The fundamental pessimistic expectations improved, but supply - demand and valuation still faced pressure [11]. Benzene Ethylene - Market Quotes: The spot price rose, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level in the same period and had room for upward repair [12][13]. - Fundamentals: The cost - side pure benzene开工 increased, supply was abundant, the benzene ethylene开工 continued to rise, port inventories increased significantly, and the demand - side three - S overall开工 rate fluctuated upward [13]. Polyethylene - Market Quotes: The futures price rose [15]. - Fundamentals: The cost - side support returned, the spot price remained unchanged, trader inventories were at a high level, and seasonal demand was weak. The price was expected to oscillate downward [15]. Polypropylene - Market Quotes: The futures price rose [16]. - Fundamentals: Shandong refinery profits stopped falling and rebounded, the开工 rate was expected to gradually recover, downstream开工 decreased seasonally, and the price was expected to be bearish in July [16]. PX - Market Quotes: The PX09 contract rose 24 yuan to 6886 yuan, PX CFR rose 1 dollar to 843 dollars, the basis was 57 (- 22) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 96 (+4) yuan [18]. - Fundamentals: The PX load in China decreased slightly, the Asian load remained unchanged, some plants had changes, PTA load remained flat, imports decreased, inventories decreased, and the valuation was at a neutral level [18][20]. PTA - Market Quotes: The PTA09 contract rose 14 yuan to 4794 yuan, the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4775 yuan, the basis was 2 (- 4) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 10 (- 6) yuan [21]. - Fundamentals: The PTA load remained unchanged, downstream load decreased, terminal load decreased, inventories increased, and the processing fee decreased. Supply was expected to accumulate inventory, and demand was under pressure in the off - season [21]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Quotes: The EG09 contract rose 37 yuan to 4447 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4490 yuan, the basis was 60 (- 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 6 (- 9) yuan [22]. - Fundamentals: The supply - side开工 decreased, downstream load decreased, import arrivals were expected, port inventories decreased, and the valuation was relatively high year - on - year. The fundamental situation was expected to turn weak, but short - term inventory de - stocking provided support [22].
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250723
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-23 01:35