国泰君安期货所长早读-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The coal industry is undergoing a "counter - involution" process. The National Energy Administration's coal production verification notice has affected the prices of coking coal, coke, thermal coal, and coal stocks [6]. - In the short - term, for coking coal and coke, the price increase is mainly due to emotional and macro - level disturbances, with the order of price influence being policy news > futures - spot behavior > actual fundamentals [8]. - For polysilicon, the expectation of "counter - involution" policies is deepening. Although the supply - demand pattern is weak, the market is trading based on the expectation of policy and capacity restructuring, and the price may continue to reach new highs [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, and silver is expected to break through and rise. Gold's trend strength is 1, and silver's is also 1 [17][18]. - Yesterday, the prices of Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2510 all increased, with daily increases of 0.40%, 0.39%, and 0.99% respectively [16]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - Copper: Domestic spot prices are firm, supporting the price. The trend strength is 1. Yesterday, the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased slightly by 0.04% during the day but increased by 0.29% at night. The London Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.31% [20][22]. - Zinc: It will have a slight oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The Shanghai Zinc main contract rose 0.09% yesterday, and the London Zinc 3M electronic disk rose 0.73% [23][25]. - Lead: There are still expected supply - demand contradictions, and the price has support. The trend strength is 0. The Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 0.35% yesterday, while the London Lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.17% [26][27]. - Tin: The price is weakening. The trend strength is - 1. The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 900 yuan/ton yesterday [30][32]. - Aluminum: It will oscillate within a range. Alumina will oscillate upwards, and cast aluminum alloy will follow electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are 0, 1, and 0 respectively [33][35]. - Nickel: Macro - level sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - level sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [36][40]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal and coke are both expected to oscillate strongly. The second - round price increase of coke has been implemented. Yesterday, the coking coal and coke main contracts closed at the daily limit, mainly due to the coal production verification notice [6][60]. - Thermal Coal: The daily consumption is recovering, and the price will oscillate and stabilize [64]. - Polysilicon: The expectation of policies is becoming stronger, and the price is difficult to fall. The trend strength is 1. The main contract of polysilicon futures rose significantly yesterday [9][44]. - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment is high, and attention should be paid to the risk of daily limit. The trend strength is 2. The price of the main contract of industrial silicon futures has been rising recently [44]. 3.3 Building Materials and Steel - Iron Ore: Supported by macro - level expectations, it will oscillate strongly. The trend strength is 0. The main contract of iron ore futures rose 1.73% yesterday [47]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Driven by macro - level sentiment, they will oscillate strongly. The trend strengths of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 1. The prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures increased significantly yesterday [51][54]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide: Driven by the macro - level market, they will oscillate strongly. The trend strengths of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicide are both 1 [56][58]. 3.4 Others - Carbonate Lithium: The sentiment in the commodity market is positive, and it will oscillate strongly. The trend strength is 1. The prices of the main contracts of carbonate lithium futures have been rising recently [41][43].