Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1][3][4] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1][6][7] - L: Cautiously bullish [1][9][11] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1][13][14] - PVC: Cautiously bullish [1][16][17] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1][19][20] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1][22][23] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish [1][25][26] - Glass: Cautiously bullish [2][28][30] - Soda ash: Bullish [2][31][32] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2][33][34] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2][36] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bullish [2] Core Views - Crude oil: The peak - season market is in the second half, and oil prices are oscillating weakly. OPEC+ is gradually increasing production, leading to rising supply - surplus pressure and significant downward pressure on oil prices [1][3][4] - LPG: The cost side is weak, but the high basis provides support for LPG prices [1][6][7] - L: Plastic has a 20% coal - to - plastic ratio, is less affected by anti - involution, and rebounds following market sentiment in the short term [1][9][11] - PP: With a 19% coal - to - plastic ratio, it rebounds following market sentiment, and export is expected to maintain high - speed growth [1][13][14] - PVC: Capacity reduction boosts sentiment and cost, providing short - term support, but the weak fundamentals limit the rebound space [1][16][17] - PX: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and there are macro - policy bullish factors [1][19][20] - PTA/PR: There may be increased supply pressure in the future, but short - term macro - policies bring bullish factors [1][22][23] - Ethylene glycol: The fundamentals are slightly loose, but macro - policies provide bullish support [1][25][26] - Glass: The market is boosted by policy expectations, and the price center moves up [2][28][30] - Soda ash: Affected by policy expectations, the price rises, but the high - supply and high - inventory situation persists [2][31][32] - Caustic soda: Supply is approaching saturation, but demand is improving, and the price is supported by the market sentiment [2][33][34] - Methanol: Supply - demand conditions are improving, and it is oscillating strongly under the influence of macro - policies [2][36] - Urea: Supply is increasing, but demand and macro - policies provide support [2] - Asphalt: Cost - side oil prices are under long - term pressure, and the market is bearish [2] - Propylene: The low absolute price provides support, and the market sentiment is improving [2] Summary by Variety Crude oil - Market review: Overnight international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 0.97%, Brent dropped 0.72%, and SC dropped 1.69% [3] - Basic logic: The oil market is in a situation of weak expectation and strong reality. OPEC's production increase is gradually releasing pressure, and the oil - price center may decline. EU sanctions on Russia and changes in Norwegian production affect supply. Chinese imports and IEA forecasts impact demand. EIA data shows inventory changes [4] - Strategy recommendation: In the long - term, supply is in surplus, and the price range is expected to be 60 - 70 dollars/barrel. In the short - term, the trend is oscillating weakly. Recommend light - position shorting and buying call options. SC focuses on [495 - 510] [5] LPG - Market review: On July 22, the PG main contract closed at 3981 yuan/ton, down 0.99% [6] - Basic logic: As OPEC+ increases production, the cost side is weak. LPG's fundamentals are mixed, with a high basis providing support. PDH and other indicators show changes in supply and demand, and inventory is increasing [7] - Strategy recommendation: In the long - term, the upstream crude - oil supply is in surplus, and LPG is over - valued. In the short - term, there is support below. Recommend closing previous short positions. PG focuses on [3950 - 4050] [8] L - Market review: Short - term prices are affected by cost, supply, and demand. The cost support is weakening, supply pressure is increasing, and demand is in the off - season [9][10] - Basic logic: Plastic has a 20% coal - to - plastic ratio, is less affected by anti - involution. The standard - product import window is closed. It rebounds following market sentiment, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking [11] - Strategy recommendation: Recommend short - term dip - buying. L focuses on [7250 - 7450] [11][12] PP - Market review: The market is affected by maintenance, demand, and cost. Currently, the market is weak, and attention should be paid to cost and supply [13] - Basic logic: With a 19% coal - to - plastic ratio, it rebounds following market sentiment. Inventory is being depleted, supply pressure is relieved, and exports are expected to grow [14] - Strategy recommendation: Recommend short - term dip - buying. PP focuses on [7100 - 7250] [14][15] PVC - Market review: The market is driven by policies, with weak fundamentals but a strong - oscillating price due to policy expectations [16] - Basic logic: Capacity reduction supports the price, but the weak fundamentals limit the rebound. Inventory is increasing, and attention should be paid to Indian anti - dumping duties and warehouse - receipt registration [17] - Strategy recommendation: Recommend short - term dip - buying. V focuses on [5100 - 5400] [17][18] PX - Market review: On July 18, the spot price in East China was 7120 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6810 yuan/ton [19] - Basic logic: Supply - side device changes are small, and demand is stable. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and inventory is high but decreasing. PXN is not low, and there are macro - policy bullish factors [20] - Strategy recommendation: PX focuses on [6820, 6940] [21] PTA - Market review: On July 18, the East - China spot price was 4782 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4733 yuan/ton [22] - Basic logic: Supply - side device changes are small, and new device production may increase pressure. Demand is weak, but macro - policies bring bullish factors. TA's fundamentals are expected to be looser, but there are short - term bullish opportunities [23] - Strategy recommendation: TA focuses on [4760, 4850] [24] Ethylene glycol - Market review: On July 18, the East - China spot price was 4429 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4376 yuan/ton [25] - Basic logic: Domestic and overseas device changes are small, and imports are low. Demand is in the off - season but shows signs of stopping decline. The basis is strong, and low inventory provides support. There are macro - policy bullish factors [26] - Strategy recommendation: EG focuses on [4420, 4480] [27] Glass - Market review: Spot - market quotes increased, and the futures price rose significantly, with an enlarged premium [29] - Basic logic: Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the market sentiment is strong. Coal prices drive up cost expectations. Glass fundamentals improve, with increased production and decreased inventory, boosting market confidence [30] - Strategy recommendation: FG focuses on [1220, 1260] [30] Soda ash - Market review: The heavy - alkali spot price increased, and the futures price rose significantly, with a narrowing basis and increasing warehouse receipts [31] - Basic logic: Affected by policy expectations, the glass and coal markets are strong, boosting the soda - ash futures price. However, alkali - factory inventory is at a record high, and supply is increasing [32] - Strategy recommendation: No specific strategy other than the price range [31][32] Caustic soda - Market review: The liquid - caustic soda spot price decreased, and the futures price rose, with a weakening basis [33] - Basic logic: Supply is approaching saturation, with high - level production and new - capacity expectations. Demand from alumina is improving, but non - aluminum demand is weak [34] - Strategy recommendation: No specific strategy other than the price range [33][34] Methanol - Market review: On July 18, the East - China spot price was 2385 yuan/ton, and the MA09 contract closed at 2365 yuan/ton [36] - Basic logic: Domestic device maintenance reduces supply, while overseas devices recover. Demand is good, and inventory is increasing but still low. Affected by macro - policies, it oscillates strongly [2] - Strategy recommendation: Recommend dip - buying. MA focuses on [2410 - 2460] [2] Urea - Basic logic: Supply is increasing as maintenance devices resume production. Demand from industry is improving, and exports are growing. Coal prices are stable, providing cost support [2] - Strategy recommendation: Recommend light - position buying. UR focuses on [1790 - 1820] [2] Asphalt - Basic logic: Cost - side oil prices are under long - term pressure, and supply is sufficient. Supply and demand are both increasing, and inventory is accumulating. The cracking spread is high, and the valuation is high [2] - Strategy recommendation: Recommend light - position shorting. BU focuses on [3580 - 3680] [2] Propylene - Basic logic: The absolute price is low, providing support. The market sentiment is improving [2] - Strategy recommendation: Unilateral trading is cautiously bullish. For arbitrage, consider shorting the 1 - 2 month spread or shorting the PP processing fee. Propylene focuses on [6500 - 6700] [2]
中辉期货今日重点推荐-20250723
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-23 01:35