Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear report industry investment rating provided in the content [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On Tuesday, most of the opening prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures were slightly higher, but they declined in the morning and accelerated the decline in the afternoon, closing at a low level. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures main contracts (TL2509, T2509, TF2509, TS2509) fell by 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [1] - The short - term interest rate in the inter - bank capital market on Tuesday was lower than the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (1.36% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.47% (1.49% the previous day) [1] - The closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds on Tuesday were higher than the previous trading day. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 0.26 BP, 1.38 BP, 1.33 BP, and 2.20 BP respectively [1] - In June, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing investment was lower than expected and lower than that in May. The year - on - year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods was also lower than expected. However, export growth and industrial added value exceeded expectations [1] - Recently, domestic real estate sales and prices continued to decline, and China's economic growth in the second half of the year faces challenges, requiring continuous efforts to expand domestic demand [1] - The progress of the U.S. tariff negotiation postponed to August 1 is an important factor affecting the global financial market. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced on July 18 that multiple anti - involution and stable - growth policies will be introduced, which short - term increased market risk preference [1] - The stock index may adjust at any time after a short - term rapid increase, and the treasury bond futures main contract prices may rebound after a continuous significant decline. Short - term long - term treasury bond futures contracts may fluctuate widely, and short - term contracts may remain stable [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, most of the opening prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures were slightly higher, with a decline in the morning and an accelerated decline in the afternoon. The 30 - year (TL2509), 10 - year (T2509), 5 - year (TF2509), and 2 - year (TS2509) treasury bond futures main contracts fell by 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [1] Important Information - Open market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 342.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits maturing [1] - Capital market: The short - term interest rate in the inter - bank capital market on Tuesday was lower than the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (1.36% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.47% (1.49% the previous day) [1] - Cash bond market: The closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds on Tuesday were higher than the previous trading day. The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 0.26 BP, 1.38 BP, 1.33 BP, and 2.20 BP respectively [1] Market Logic - In June, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing investment was lower than expected and lower than that in May. The year - on - year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods was also lower than expected. However, export growth and industrial added value exceeded expectations [1] - Recently, domestic real estate sales and prices continued to decline, and China's economic growth in the second half of the year faces challenges, requiring continuous efforts to expand domestic demand [1] - The progress of the U.S. tariff negotiation postponed to August 1 is an important factor affecting the global financial market. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced on July 18 that multiple anti - involution and stable - growth policies will be introduced, which short - term increased market risk preference [1] - The stock index may adjust at any time after a short - term rapid increase, and the treasury bond futures main contract prices may rebound after a continuous significant decline. Short - term long - term treasury bond futures contracts may fluctuate widely, and short - term contracts may remain stable [1] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [2]
早盘提示-20250723
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-07-23 01:35