Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market sentiment is positive, influenced by policies such as "anti - involution" and the expected release of key industry stability and growth plans. However, different sectors have different outlooks based on their specific fundamentals [6][11]. - In the short term, the market style may shift from small - and medium - cap stocks to large - and medium - cap stocks. For the bond market, although the long - term trend of interest rates is downward, the recent strong performance of commodities and the stock market has suppressed the bond market [3][6]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - Macro news includes the release of the "Rural Highway Regulations", the establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd., coal stock surges due to production checks, and net foreign capital inflows into domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year [2]. - The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH are provided. The trading logic suggests that the market style may shift, and it is recommended to go long on IF index futures at low prices [3]. Treasury Bonds - On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. Foreign capital has been increasing its allocation of RMB assets, and the scale of foreign investment in RMB bonds is at a historically high level. The human resources department will promote pension - related reforms [4]. - The central bank conducted 2148 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2477 billion yuan. The economic data in the second quarter was resilient, and the central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy. The bond market may be affected by the stock - bond seesaw [5][6]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold and silver prices rose, while COMEX gold fell slightly and COMEX silver rose. The statements of Fed officials have affected the precious metals market. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on precious metals, with reference price ranges provided for Shanghai gold and silver [7][8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The US dollar index is weak, and the commodity sentiment is positive, driving up copper prices. However, the supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the downstream is in a relatively off - season. The implementation of US copper tariffs may pose a downward risk to copper prices. Reference price ranges are provided for Shanghai copper and LME copper [10][11]. Aluminum - The rise of black - series commodities has led to an increase in aluminum prices. Although the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is relatively low, it is expected to accumulate due to the off - season and weak export demand. Reference price ranges are provided for domestic and LME aluminum [12]. Zinc - In the long - term, the zinc price is expected to be bearish due to the abundant supply of zinc ore and the expected increase in zinc ingot production. In the short - term, the dovish Fed atmosphere and the strong commodity sentiment may lead to a short - term upward trend in zinc prices [13]. Lead - The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and the demand is affected by anti - dumping tariffs. It is expected that the domestic lead price will be weak [15][16]. Nickel - The short - term macro - environment is positive, but the stainless - steel inventory is high, and the demand for nickel is weak. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will continue to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [17]. Tin - The supply of tin is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the short - term supply of raw materials is still tight, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges provided [18]. Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium has increased. The "anti - involution" policy has affected the market sentiment, but the fundamental improvement is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [19][20]. Alumina - The price of alumina has increased. The policy of "eliminating backward production capacity" has boosted the market sentiment, but the over - capacity situation may still exist. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [21]. Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel has increased slightly, but the supply exceeds demand, and the market sentiment has cooled. The anti - involution policy has boosted the industry's willingness to support prices, but the fundamental situation has not improved significantly [22]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy has increased slightly. The downstream is in an off - season, and the supply and demand are both weak. The cost support has strengthened, but the price may face difficulties in continuous increase [23]. Black Building Materials Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have increased. The start of the Motuo Hydropower Station project has increased the demand expectation for building materials. The supply - side reform and low inventory levels may support the price increase. Attention should be paid to policy signals and terminal demand [25][26]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore has increased. The high demand for iron water and low overseas ore arrivals have supported the price. The "anti - involution" policy has also boosted the market sentiment. The ore price may remain strong in the short - term [27][28]. Glass and Soda Ash - The price of glass has increased due to policy support and inventory reduction. The price of soda ash has also increased in the short - term, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction still exists. It is recommended to avoid short - selling in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities later [29][30]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have increased due to the coal market rally. The fundamental situation of the alloy market is still bearish, but the short - term market sentiment is strong. It is recommended to wait and see [31][32]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon has increased. The supply of industrial silicon is still excessive, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to rationally treat the current market and consider hedging for the industrial side [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - The prices of NR and RU have risen. The rubber market has different views from bulls and bears. The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises have changed, and the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on rubber prices in the medium - term and be cautious in the short - term [38][39][41]. Crude Oil - The prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil have declined. The fundamental market is healthy, but the seasonal demand in August may limit the upward space. A target price for WTI in September is provided, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits [42][44]. Methanol - The price of methanol has increased. The market is driven by news, and the volatility has increased. The supply and demand are expected to be weak in the future. It is recommended to wait and see after the sharp increase [45]. Urea - The price of urea has increased. The domestic urea supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom but limited upside. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [46]. Styrene - The spot price of styrene has increased, and the futures price has decreased, with a strengthening basis. The cost - side support is strong, and the BZN spread may be repaired. It is expected that the styrene price will follow the cost - side fluctuations [47]. PVC - The price of PVC has increased. The fundamental situation has improved slightly, but the supply and demand and valuation still face pressure. The short - term trend is strong due to anti - dumping extension and market sentiment [49]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol has increased. The supply and demand situation is changing, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term valuation has upward support, but the fundamental situation may turn weak in the future [50]. PTA - The price of PTA has increased slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX at low prices [51]. Para - Xylene - The price of para - xylene has increased. The short - term negative feedback from the downstream is small, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following crude oil at low prices [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - The futures price of PE has increased. The cost - side support has returned, but the demand is in an off - season. The price may maintain a downward trend in a volatile manner [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - The futures price of PP has increased. The supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and it is expected that the price will be bearish in July. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The domestic pig price has generally declined. The short - term supply is limited, and the price may rise again in August. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may increase. It is recommended to buy at low prices for the 09 contract and consider hedging or short - selling for the 11 contract [56]. Eggs - The egg price has mostly stabilized, with some increases and decreases. The supply pressure has eased, but the high - premium situation makes the market lack a clear trend. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds for the 09 and later contracts [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The price of US soybeans is expected to fluctuate within a range. The domestic soybean import cost is affected by trade relations. The domestic soybean meal market has both long and short factors. It is recommended to go long at the low end of the cost range and wait for new drivers [58][59]. Oils and Fats - The price of palm oil has continued to rise. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but the high - yield expectation and other factors limit the upward space. It is recommended to view the market as volatile [60][62]. Sugar - The price of sugar has declined slightly. The import of syrup and pre - mixed powder has decreased, but the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. It is expected that the price of Zhengzhou sugar will continue to decline [63]. Cotton - The price of cotton has increased slightly. The US cotton growth situation is good, and the downstream consumption is average. The potential issuance of import quotas may be a negative factor. The price has reflected some positive expectations [64][65].
文字早评2025/07/23星期三宏观金融类-20250723
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-07-23 01:35