对二甲苯：供需仍偏紧，滚动正套PTA：聚酯产销放量，原料趋势偏强

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Commodity Market Trends: Affected by factors such as "anti - involution" policies, overall commodity sentiment is currently strong, but external factors like potential August trade war risks need attention. Different commodities show diverse trends due to their own supply - demand fundamentals [37][46][81]. - Supply - Demand Dynamics: In general, many commodities face supply - demand imbalances. Some have increasing supply pressure, while demand may be in the off - season or face challenges from various factors [37][46][81]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PX, PTA, MEG) - PX: Supply - demand remains tight. Domestic device operating rates are decreasing, and PTA operating rates are rising. It is recommended to take a long PX and short EB/EG position and conduct rolling long on the monthly spread [6][10]. - PTA: Unilateral trend is strong. Due to increased downstream polyester procurement enthusiasm, it is advisable to take a long PTA and short PF position [10]. - MEG: Unilateral trend turns strong, and a reverse spread operation for the 9 - 1 monthly spread is recommended. The increase in coal prices affects coal - chemical products [10]. 3.2 Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber: Shows a volatile trend. Although futures prices have increased and trading volume has expanded, the tire industry is facing over - supply and price competition, and the overall market lacks strong upward momentum [11][12][15]. - Synthetic Rubber: The price center moves up. In the short - term, it is driven by policy expectations, raw material price stability, and inventory reduction. However, in the medium - term, supply increases may limit price elasticity [18][20]. 3.3 Asphalt - It fluctuates repeatedly. Production has decreased, factory inventories have decreased, and social inventories have slightly increased. Market trends are mainly affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships [21][29][35]. 3.4 Polyolefins (LLDPE, PP) - LLDPE: Ranges within a certain interval. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand support is weak. Although inventory is currently low, it is gradually moving towards a state of inventory accumulation [36][37]. - PP: Spot prices fluctuate, and trading is light. Futures prices have a certain impact on the spot market, but downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high [41][42]. 3.5 Caustic Soda - The rebound is difficult to sustain. Supply pressure will gradually increase, but export orders can offset some of the new production capacity. Demand is in the off - season, and although there is cost support, the price increase momentum is insufficient [44][46]. 3.6 Pulp - It fluctuates widely. The spot market is weak, with high port inventories and sluggish demand. The paper pulp market is affected by general commodity price increases, but the follow - up of the spot market is limited [49][51]. 3.7 Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. Driven by the strong futures market, the price of the original sheet has increased slightly, and the delivery of futures merchants is relatively active [53][54]. 3.8 Methanol - It runs strongly. Supported by macro - policies and expectations of olefin external procurement, the market sentiment is positive. Although the traditional downstream demand has not improved significantly, the short - term market may maintain a stable and strong trend [56][59]. 3.9 Urea - The spot price stabilizes, and the upward space is narrowing. The short - term fundamentals have little impact on prices, mainly relying on policy - driven speculation. Supply has maintenance plans, and demand has export support, but domestic agricultural demand is coming to an end [61][63]. 3.10 Styrene - It is a short - position allocation under strong sentiment. Currently in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, it is recommended to focus on positions that compress styrene profits [64][65]. 3.11 Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The market is stable with slight fluctuations, device operation is relatively stable, and downstream demand is flat [66]. 3.12 LPG - It shows a short - term weak and volatile trend. PDH and other industrial operating rates have increased, and price spreads have changed. Attention should be paid to device maintenance plans and international price expectations [68][70][77]. 3.13 PVC - The rebound is difficult to sustain. Although affected by policy expectations, the supply - demand contradiction in the spot market persists. High production and high inventory structures are difficult to change in the short - term [80][81]. 3.14 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: Continues to decline, and the short - term weakness is difficult to change. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Shows a weak and volatile trend at night, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the external spot market rebounds slightly [83]. 3.15 Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is recommended to hold short positions for the October contract and reverse spreads for the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 contracts. Freight rates show different trends, and attention should be paid to market supply - demand and shipping capacity changes [85].