国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250723

Report Overview - Date: July 23, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Content: Morning report on the black series of commodities, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Iron ore: Supported by macro expectations, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Driven by macro sentiment, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Boosted by the macro market, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][11] - Coke: The second round of price increases has been implemented, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][15] - Coking coal: The expected supply policy constraints have been strengthened, showing a strong and volatile trend [2][15] - Thermal coal: Daily consumption has recovered, showing a stable and volatile trend [2][20] - Logs: Showing a fluctuating and repeated trend [2][23] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamental data: The futures price closed at 823 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 1.73% from the previous day. The trading volume decreased by 43,544 lots. Spot prices generally increased, with the largest increase of 14 yuan/ton for Jumbuck (61%) [4] - Macro and industry news: The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [4] - Trend strength: 0 [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - Fundamental data: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,307 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 3.12%. The HC2510 contract of hot-rolled coil closed at 3,477 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan or 2.84%. Spot prices generally increased, with the largest increase of 80 yuan/ton for hot-rolled coil in Tianjin [7] - Macro and industry news: In June, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 867 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of work plans for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel [7][9] - Trend strength: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental data: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. The spot price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the price of manganese ore increased by 0.3 yuan/ton degree [11] - Macro and industry news: On July 22, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in some regions increased. A steel mill in Shandong finalized the purchase prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12] - Trend strength: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [13] Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental data: The futures prices of coke and coking coal increased significantly. The spot price of coke in Rizhao Port increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the prices of some coking coal varieties also increased [15] - Trend strength: 1 for both coke and coking coal [17] Thermal Coal - Fundamental data: The ZC2507 contract of thermal coal had no trading volume. The prices of southern port and domestic origin coal are provided. The long and short positions of the top 20 members in the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange did not change [20][21] - Trend strength: 0 [22] Logs - Fundamental data: The prices of log futures contracts showed fluctuations. The spot prices of most log varieties remained stable, with a slight decrease in the prices of some wood squares [24] - Macro and industry news: The construction ceremony of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River was held on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [26] - Trend strength: 0 [26]