国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250723

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Boosted by the macro - environment, be vigilant about sentiment reversal [2][6] - Soybean oil: Follows the oil and fat sector, relatively weak among varieties [2][6] - Soybean meal: Market sentiment is strong, the market fluctuates strongly [2][14] - Soybean: Technically, it fluctuates strongly [2][14] - Corn: Runs in a fluctuating manner [2][17] - Sugar: Conducts narrow - range consolidation [2][21] - Cotton: Pay attention to market sentiment changes [2][26] - Eggs: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling decreases [2][33] - Pigs: Macro sentiment is strong, waiting for end - of - month confirmation [2][35] - Peanuts: Run in a fluctuating manner [2][39] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Tracking: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 8,926 yuan/ton with a 0.18% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,954 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,076 yuan/ton with a 0.20% decrease, and night - session closing price was 8,072 yuan/ton with a 0.05% decrease [7]. - Macro and Industry News: UOB estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 increased by 5 - 9%. MPOC expected next month's crude palm oil price to be between 4,100 - 4,300 Malaysian ringgit. SGS estimated Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 decreased by 35.99% compared to the previous month [8][10]. - Trend Intensity: Palm oil trend intensity is 0, soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [13]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Tracking: DCE soybean 2509's daily - session closing price was 4232 yuan/ton with a 1.34% increase, and night - session closing price was 4241 yuan/ton with a 0.66% increase. DCE soybean meal 2509's daily - session closing price was 3086 yuan/ton with a 0.88% increase, and night - session closing price was 3092 yuan/ton with a 0.52% increase [14]. - Macro and Industry News: On July 22, CBOT soybeans fell due to good Midwest weather and focus on trade negotiations [14][16]. - Trend Intensity: Soybean meal trend intensity is +1, soybean trend intensity is +1 (only for the daily - session main - contract futures price on the report day) [16]. Corn - Fundamental Tracking: C2509's daily - session closing price was 2,322 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase, and night - session closing price was 2,303 yuan/ton with a 0.82% decrease [18]. - Macro and Industry News: Northern corn collection port prices were stable, container collection port prices increased by 20 yuan/ton, and prices in other regions had different changes [19]. - Trend Intensity: Corn trend intensity is 0 [20]. Sugar - Fundamental Tracking: The raw sugar price was 16.26 cents/pound with a 0.1 decrease. The mainstream spot price was 6040 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan decrease [21]. - Macro and Industry News: Pakistan approved importing 500,000 tons of sugar. Brazil's central - southern region's crushing progress was slow, but MIX increased significantly year - on - year [21]. - Trend Intensity: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [24]. Cotton - Fundamental Tracking: CF2509's daily - session closing price was 14,225 yuan/ton with a 0.28% increase, and night - session closing price was 14235 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase [26]. - Macro and Industry News: Cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, and the cotton yarn market's demand was insufficient. ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly [27][28]. - Trend Intensity: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [31]. Eggs - Fundamental Tracking: Egg 2508's closing price was 3,574 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.17% increase [33]. - Trend Intensity: Egg trend intensity is 0 [33]. Pigs - Fundamental Tracking: The Henan spot price was 14430 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan decrease. The futures price of live pigs 2509 was 14380 yuan/ton with a 15 - yuan increase [35]. - Market Logic: Currently in the consumption off - season, the spot price has dropped rapidly. Wait for end - of - month confirmation. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15000 yuan/ton [37]. - Trend Intensity: Pig trend intensity is 0 [36]. Peanuts - Fundamental Tracking: PK510's closing price was 8,140 yuan/ton with a 0.83% decrease [39]. - Spot Market Focus: In various regions such as Henan, Jilin, and Liaoning, raw material acquisitions are basically over, and inventory trading is the main activity, with prices generally stable [40]. - Trend Intensity: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [41].