对二甲苯：供需仍偏紧，滚动正套PTA：聚酯产销放量，原料趋势偏强，MEG：单边趋势偏强，月差反套

Market Overview - PX price remained strong today, with the end - of - day physical goods for September at 843/848 in negotiation and for October at 834/841 in negotiation. The 9/10 swap had a buy - side at par, but no deals were made. The PX valuation today was 843 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar from yesterday. The end - of - day naphtha price continued to weaken, and the current estimated price of August MOPJ is 569 dollars/ton CFR. The trading activity in the Asian PX spot market on July 22 was light, with sellers and buyers mostly on the sidelines. The discussion about China's phased elimination of aging petrochemical production capacity dampened market sentiment [3] - For MEG, from July 21 - 27, the arrival quantity in Zhangjiagang was about 4300 tons, in Taicang about 7700 tons, in Ningbo about 3700 tons, and in Shanghai about 0 tons. The total planned arrival at major ports was about 15700 tons. A 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Inner Mongolia is currently being restarted and is expected to produce at the end of July. A 200,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shanxi has recently restarted and produced [5] - The overall sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were fair today. By around 3:30 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was estimated to be around even. The sales - to - production ratios of several factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 25%, 150%, 200%, etc. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average today. By around 3:00 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was 55% [6] Price and Spread Data Futures | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6886 | 4794 | 4447 | 6470 | 504.3 | | Change | 6862 | 14 | 37 | 38 | - 8 | | Change Rate | 24 | 0.29% | 0.84% | 0.59% | - 1.56% | | Month Spread | PX9 - 1 | PTA9 - 1 | MEG9 - 1 | PF8 - 9 | SC8 - 9 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 96 | 10 | - 6 | 8 | 10.4 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | 92 | 16 | 3 | 16 | 25.8 | | Change | 4 | - 6 | - 9 | - 8 | - 15.4 | [2] Spot | Spot | PX CFR China (USD/ton) | PTA East China (CNY/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent (USD/barrel) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Price | 843.33 | 4772 | 4490 | 566.38 | 69.79 | | Previous Day's Price | 842.33 | 4782 | 4467 | 572.88 | 70.53 | | Change | 1 | - 10 | 23 | - 6.5 | - 0.73 | [2] Spot Processing Margin | Spot Processing Margin | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Margin | Short - Fiber Processing Margin | Bottle - Chip Processing Margin | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Price | 261.95 | 256.61 | 138.04 | - 483.95 | - 6.01 | | Previous Day's Price | 258.08 | 234.63 | 204.46 | - 465.55 | - 6.01 | | Change | 3.88 | 21.98 | - 66.41 | - 18.41 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 1 Note: The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2 (integers). The strength levels are classified as weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [7] Views and Suggestions - PX: The single - side is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and the month - spread should be rolled for long positions. Keep an eye on the long PX short EB/EG positions. The PX supply - demand remains tight. On the supply side, the operating rate of domestic plants has decreased, and some plants (Shenghong, Hengli) have unplanned load - reduction. In the second half of the month, pay attention to the possible maintenance of Tianjin Petrochemical. On the PTA side, the operating rate has rebounded, and the 1.5 - million - ton plant of Sanfangxiang is in trial operation, increasing the overall supply. In terms of valuation, Shandong Yulong is about to start production, the valuation of MX has decreased, the PX - MX spread has widened. Although MX in East China is slightly tight due to low inventory, it does not affect PX processing profitability [7] - PTA: The single - side trend is upward. Regarding the spread between varieties, consider long PTA short PF. Affected by the overall commodity market rally, the enthusiasm of polyester downstream buyers has significantly increased, with the sales - to - production ratio of some polyester factories reaching up to 1000%, which is expected to drive a positive feedback in advance. Adopt a long - side strategy [7] - MEG: Reverse the 9 - 1 month - spread. The single - side trend turns strong. The continuous rise in coal prices has an impact on coal - chemical products [7]