Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report - The RMB exchange rate is likely to remain stable in the short term, with an expected operating range of 7.15 - 7.20 this week [1]. - The stock index is expected to continue to strengthen as various sentiment indicators are positive [2]. - Treasury bond trading desks are advised to temporarily stop losses and wait for the details of the anti - involution policy to be fully implemented after important meetings. There may be a configuration opportunity for the bond market after the policy is implemented and emotions are released [2][3][4]. - The shipping index (European line) futures prices may continue to oscillate and decline slightly. Attention should be paid to the actions of other shipping companies and the changes in the spot quotes of European lines [4][5]. - Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term but may face risks in the medium term. Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina to run strongly, and casting aluminum alloy to oscillate at a high level. Zinc is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and decline in the long term. Nickel and stainless steel are affected by macro - emotions, and the trend needs to pay attention to the fermentation of macro - emotions. Tin prices are expected to follow the overall trend of the non - ferrous sector in the short term, and it is recommended to hedge inventory at an appropriate time. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are affected by coal price disturbances and macro - emotions, and there are opportunities for long positions and positive spreads. Lead is expected to oscillate [6][7][8][9][10][11][13][14][15][16][17][19][21][22]. - The steel and hot - rolled coil market is expected to remain strong before the Politburo meeting in July, but the risk of a pullback due to the weakening of emotions should be vigilant. Iron ore is driven by expectations, and its price is expected to fluctuate more strongly near the meeting. Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of 9 - 1 reverse spreads. Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to be optimistic in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]. - Crude oil is in an oscillating and weakening pattern, and attention should be paid to the risk of a price decline. PX - PTA and MEG - bottle chips are driven by the "anti - involution" policy and are expected to run strongly in the short term. Methanol is recommended to be observed. PP and PE are affected by the cost side and macro - policies, with resistance to price increases and a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern respectively. PVC is affected by the "anti - involution" emotion and is recommended to avoid risks. Fuel oil is in a weak adjustment, low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure and should be observed, asphalt is adjusted weakly following the cost side, and urea is expected to oscillate strongly [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53]. - Soda ash supply is strong and demand is weak, and glass is expected to remain strong. Logs have a relatively independent market, and pulp may break through and can be cautiously chased long if it breaks through effectively. Caustic soda is at a high level, and attention should be paid to the change in downstream demand [54][55][57][59][60]. - For agricultural products, live pigs are recommended to be shorted at high prices and appropriate reverse spreads can be arranged. Oilseeds are recommended to be long - allocated in the far - month contracts. Corn and starch are expected to oscillate narrowly. Cotton is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to inventory changes. Sugar is under short - term pressure. Apples are expected to oscillate in the short term [62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures RMB Exchange Rate - Yesterday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1756 at 16:30, up 12 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1695 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1460, up 62 basis points [1]. - The current market has no obvious expectation of RMB appreciation or depreciation, and the foreign exchange market transactions are rational and orderly. The external environment shows that the rapid depreciation stage of the US dollar index is likely to have ended, but the overall weak trend is expected to continue. Domestically, the central bank is likely to continue to adhere to the regulatory philosophy of "bottom - line thinking + discretionary decision - making" [1]. Stock Index - Yesterday, the stock index continued to strengthen, and the trading volume of the two markets increased by 1930.58 billion yuan. The futures index increased in volume. Affected by the anti - involution policy and the start of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, the water conservancy, steel, and building materials sectors led the rise [2]. - With positive sentiment indicators and relatively calm news, the stock index is expected to continue to strengthen [2]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures opened strongly, oscillated narrowly, then dived and closed down. The short - end was relatively strong, and the liquidity improved, with the capital interest rate returning to the key level of 1.3% [2]. - With the strong performance of risk assets and the decline of treasury bond futures prices, trading desks are advised to temporarily stop losses and wait for the details of the anti - involution policy. After the policy is implemented and emotions are released, there may be a configuration opportunity for the bond market [2][3][4]. Container Shipping - Yesterday, the prices of container shipping index (European line) futures contracts oscillated downward. Affected by commodity emotions, they rebounded slightly and then continued to decline [4]. - On July 31, the total quote of Maersk's 20GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam increased by $10 compared with the previous value, and the 40GP increased by $20. On August 7, the opening quotes of 20GP and 40GP decreased compared with the previous week [4]. - The futures price is expected to continue to oscillate and decline slightly, and attention should be paid to the actions of other shipping companies and the changes in the spot quotes of European lines [4][5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The Shanghai Copper Index maintained a high - level oscillation on Tuesday. The anti - involution policy has an impact on the non - ferrous metal sector. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term, but there are hidden risks in the medium term [6][7]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: The price of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 0.75% on the previous trading day, and the price of alumina increased by 6.07%. The price of casting aluminum alloy increased by 0.90%. Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina to run strongly, and casting aluminum alloy to oscillate at a high level [8][9][10][11]. - Zinc: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc increased by 0.01% on the previous trading day. The supply of zinc is expected to change from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short term and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [11][13]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel increased by 1.52% during the day, and the main contract of stainless steel increased by 0.47%. The current market is mainly affected by macro - emotions, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly [15]. - Tin: The Shanghai Tin Index showed a V - shaped trend on Tuesday. Tin prices are affected by the anti - involution policy, but the fundamentals remain stable. It is recommended to hedge inventory at an appropriate time [16][17]. - Lithium Carbonate: On Tuesday, the futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated strongly. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain strengthened, and the cost support was enhanced. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [17][18]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: On Tuesday, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose by the daily limit. Affected by coal price disturbances and macro - emotions, there are opportunities for long positions and positive spreads [19][20]. - Lead: The main contract of Shanghai Lead decreased by 0.02% on the previous trading day. The supply of lead is in a tight - balance state, and it is difficult to synchronize with the anti - involution policy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [21][22]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The coking coal market led to a rise in the steel market. The market is expected to remain strong before the Politburo meeting in July, but the risk of a pullback due to the weakening of emotions should be vigilant [24][25]. - Iron Ore: Affected by news and expectations, the price of iron ore followed the rise of coking coal. The fundamentals have not changed much, and the price is expected to fluctuate more strongly near the meeting [26][27]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal and coke markets rose by the daily limit. The production of domestic coking coal mines is gradually recovering, and the import is expected to increase. The coking industry is under cost pressure, and the demand for coke is supported in the short term. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [28][29][30]. - Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese: The profits of silicon iron and silicon manganese have improved, and the production enterprises have a certain driving force to resume production. However, the growth space is limited due to weak downstream demand. The market is expected to be optimistic in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [31][32]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The prices of New York and London crude oil futures decreased, and the SC crude oil main contract also closed down at night. The market is in an oscillating and weakening pattern, and attention should be paid to the risk of a price decline [33][34]. - PX - PTA: The PX - PTA industry chain has limited fundamental driving forces. The macro "anti - involution" policy has an uncertain impact, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [35][36][37]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The supply of ethylene glycol has frequent accidents, and the demand is weak. Affected by the "anti - involution" emotion, the overall trend is strong. The bottle chips' price fluctuates with the cost side [38][39][40]. - Methanol: The methanol 09 contract closed at 2450 on Tuesday. The port inventory continued to accumulate. It is recommended to observe due to strong macro - emotions [41][42]. - PP: The PP 2509 contract increased. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. Although the trading volume has increased, the price increase faces resistance [43][44]. - PE: The PE 2509 contract increased. The supply has a high level of maintenance, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [45][46]. - PVC: The PVC price increased sharply, driven by the "anti - involution" emotion and the expectation of eliminating outdated chemical devices. Although the fundamentals are poor, the anti - involution value is high. It is recommended to avoid risks [47][48][49]. - Fuel Oil: The fuel oil market is in a weak adjustment. The supply is still tight, and the demand has increased in some areas. The Singapore and Malaysian floating - storage inventories are at a high level [50]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure. The supply has decreased overseas, and the demand has slightly improved. It is recommended to observe in the short term [51]. - Asphalt: The asphalt market is adjusted weakly following the cost side. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory structure is being adjusted, and the market is expected to improve in the peak season [51][52]. - Urea: The urea 09 contract closed at 1810 on Tuesday. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. However, the agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will be under pressure in the second half of the year [53]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The soda ash supply is strong and demand is weak, and the glass market is expected to remain strong. The "anti - involution" policy has an impact on the market, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the policy [54][55]. Others - Logs: The main contract of logs closed at 838, with a decrease of 4 and a reduction of 2264 lots. The market is relatively independent, and the spot price is stable. The current price is slightly overvalued [57][58]. - Pulp: The main contract of pulp closed at 5368, with an increase of 40. Affected by the macro - atmosphere, the price has risen. If it can break through effectively, it can be cautiously chased long [59]. - Caustic Soda: The caustic soda 2509 contract closed at 2658, with an increase of 3.46%. The inventory has increased slightly, and the market is at a high level. Attention should be paid to the change in downstream demand [60]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The LH2509 contract closed at 14380, with a daily increase of 0.1%. The national average price of live pigs decreased slightly. The supply is still high, and it is recommended to short at high prices and arrange appropriate reverse spreads [62][63]. Oilseeds - The external market of US soybeans oscillated after a rebound, and the domestic near - month contracts were strong, and the far - month contracts also followed the rise. The supply of imported soybeans is relatively abundant, and the demand for domestic soybean meal has neutral support. The supply of rapeseed meal has a short - term rhythm problem, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery of the rapeseed sector [64]. - It is recommended to long - allocate far - month contracts [65][66]. Corn and Starch - The CBOT corn futures closed down, and the Dalian corn starch oscillated. The prices of corn and starch in different regions were stable. The market is expected to oscillate narrowly, and attention should be paid to the auction成交 rate [66]. Cotton - The ICE cotton futures rose slightly, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures rose nearly 0.5% overnight. The new cotton in Xinjiang is growing well, and the domestic cotton inventory is low, which supports the cotton price. However, the terminal demand is weak in the off - season [67]. - The cotton market is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the import quota policy and inventory changes [67][68]. Sugar - The ICE raw sugar futures closed down, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the short - term sugar price is under pressure [69][70]. Apples - The apple futures price increased slightly. The spot price of apples in different regions is stable. Affected by seasonal fruits, the sales volume is limited. The inventory is at a low level in the past five years. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [71].
金融期货早评-20250723
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-07-23 01:49