宝城期货国债期货早报-20250723

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on Treasury bond futures is that they will be in a stage of oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with an oscillatory trend in the medium - term and an oscillatory - weakening trend in the intraday period. The monetary policy environment is inclined to be loose, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory - weakening. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the short - term possibility of an interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is oscillatory - weakening, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and corrected yesterday, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures having the largest decline. Recently, due to a large number of reverse repurchase maturities, the central bank's open - market operations have mainly been net withdrawals. The domestic macro - economic outlook is positive, the economic data in the first half of the year showed resilience, and the pressure for stable growth in the second half of the year has decreased. The risk appetite in the securities market has rapidly recovered, causing Treasury bond futures to enter an oscillatory adjustment stage. However, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates is strong, and the market interest rate is close to the policy interest rate, so the upward space for the market interest rate is limited. The problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year. There is still an expectation of an interest rate cut, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low, so the downward space for interest rates is also limited [5].