螺纹钢：宏观情绪推涨，偏强震荡

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that both rebar and hot-rolled coil are experiencing a bullish and volatile trend driven by macro sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: For rebar, prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou increased by 50 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 30 yuan/ton respectively. For hot-rolled coil, prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou rose by 50 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton, and 60 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Tangshan billet increased by 70 yuan/ton [2]. - Price Spreads: The basis for RB2510 decreased by 33 yuan/ton, and for HC2510 also decreased by 33 yuan/ton. The spread between RB2510 and RB2601 decreased by 7 yuan/ton, while the spread between HC2510 and HC2601 increased by 1 yuan/ton. The spread between HC2510 and RB2510 remained unchanged, and the spread between HC2601 and RB2601 decreased by 8 yuan/ton. The spot spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar decreased by 1 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Power Consumption: In June, the total social power consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative total social power consumption was 4841.8 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The power consumption of the secondary industry was 3148.5 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [3]. - Industry Policies: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to implement a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, to promote structural adjustment, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [4]. - Production and Inventory Data: According to the weekly data from Steelhome on July 17, rebar production decreased by 7.6 tons, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 2 tons, and the total production of five major varieties decreased by 0.96 tons. Rebar inventory increased by 2.89 tons, hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 2.65 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 1.92 tons. Rebar apparent demand decreased by 15.33 tons, hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 1.28 tons, and the total apparent demand of five major varieties increased by 0.61 tons [4]. - Steel Production: In early July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.97 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous period; 19.31 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.931 million tons, a 1.1% decrease; and 19.88 million tons of steel products, with an average daily output of 1.988 million tons, an 11.9% decrease. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 15.07 million tons, a decrease of 380,000 tons from the previous ten-day period, a 2.4% decrease [4]. - Financial Data: At the end of June 2025, the broad money (M2) balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month and 2.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The narrow money (M1) balance was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [4]. - Steel Exports: In June 2025, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel products, a decrease of 900,000 tons from the previous month, an 8.5% decrease; the average price was $687.1 per ton, a decrease of $10.8 per ton from the previous month, a 1.5% decrease. From January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, an increase of 4.908 million tons compared to the same period last year, a 9.2% increase [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is both 1, indicating a moderately bullish trend [4][5].