铅：供需矛盾预期仍存，价格存支撑

Overall Core View - The supply-demand contradiction of lead is still expected to exist, and the price is supported [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Market Data Summary Futures Price - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day; the closing price of the 3M electronic disk of LME lead was 2,015 dollars/ton, up 0.17% [1] Trading Volume - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 34,982 lots, a decrease of 9,677 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 6,342 lots, a decrease of 3,570 lots [1] Open Interest - The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 41,631 lots, a decrease of 3,239 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 136,798 lots, an increase of 595 lots [1] Premium and Discount - The premium and discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -45 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium and discount was -25.97 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.47 dollars/ton [1] Import and Export Profit and Loss - The import profit and loss of lead ingot spot was -699.81 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.39 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three was -566.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.6 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 60,059 tons, unchanged; the inventory of LME lead was 262,500 tons, a decrease of 2,425 tons [1] Other Prices - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1] Comprehensive Profit and Loss - The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -507 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton [1] News Summary - There are potential "tariff wars" between Brazil and the US, the EU and the US, and the US and Japan. Brazil may respond if Trump doesn't change his mind, the EU may impose over 90 billion euros in countermeasures if tariff negotiations don't progress, and Trump plans to impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods while Japan will invest 550 billion dollars in the US [2] - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) stated that the global lead market had a supply surplus of 1,000 tons in May 2025, compared with a supply shortage of 6,000 tons in April [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2]