棕榈油：宏观助推，警惕情绪回落，豆油：跟随油脂板块，品种间偏弱

Report Overview - Report Title: "Palm Oil: Boosted by Macroeconomics, Beware of Sentiment Reversal; Soybean Oil: Following the Oil and Fat Sector, Weaker Among Varieties" [1] - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil is boosted by macro factors, but there is a need to be vigilant about sentiment reversal; soybean oil follows the oil and fat sector and is relatively weak among varieties [1] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,926 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.18% increase and 8,954 yuan/ton at night with a 0.31% increase; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,076 yuan/ton during the day with a -0.20% decrease and 8,072 yuan/ton at night with a -0.05% decrease; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,477 yuan/ton during the day with a -0.90% decrease and 9,450 yuan/ton at night with a -0.28% decrease; Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 4,263 ringgit/ton during the day with a 0.88% increase and 4,233 ringgit/ton at night with a -0.31% decrease; CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 55.48 cents/pound with a -0.61% decrease [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 706,504 lots with a decrease of 2,205 lots and an open interest of 492,920 lots with a decrease of 16,949 lots; soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 296,786 lots with a decrease of 24,688 lots and an open interest of 521,320 lots with a decrease of 14,497 lots; rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 298,782 lots with an increase of 55,607 lots and an open interest of 225,053 lots with a decrease of 16,433 lots [2] - Spot Prices: Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9,000 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase; first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,280 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan decrease; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,550 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan decrease; Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,040 dollars/ton with a 15 - dollar decrease [2] - Basis: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was 74 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 204 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was 73 yuan/ton [2] - Price Spreads: The futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil主力 was 551 yuan/ton (previous 653 yuan/ton); the futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil主力 was - 850 yuan/ton (previous - 818 yuan/ton); palm oil 9 - 1 spread was 24 yuan/ton (previous 52 yuan/ton); soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 48 yuan/ton (previous 44 yuan/ton); rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 66 yuan/ton (previous 71 yuan/ton) [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - UOB estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20, 2025, is expected to increase by 5 - 9%, with production in Sabah expected to decrease by 0 - 4%, in Sarawak to decrease by 1% to increase by 3%, and in Peninsular Malaysia to increase by 11 - 15% [3] - MPOC expects the price of crude palm oil next month to be between 4,100 - 4,300 ringgit, driven by the strong soybean oil market and Indian festival demand. However, the upward trend of vegetable oil prices may be restricted by the abundant global oilseed supply, especially soybeans. Since January, soybean oil has rebounded significantly, with a cumulative increase of 19%, exceeding the increases of rapeseed oil and palm oil. From May to June, Malaysia's palm oil exports to India were above 250,000 tons each month, and this positive trend is expected to continue in Q3. India is expected to import about 2.9 million tons of palm oil in Q3 [5] - SGS estimates that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20, 2025, were 486,404 tons, a 35.99% decrease compared to the same period last month [5] - India's Ministry of Agriculture states that oil palm cultivation is not promoted in forest areas to address environmental concerns [6] - USDA's weekly soybean crushing report shows that as of July 18, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was $2.58 per bushel, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week. In 2024, the average crushing profit was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023 [6] - Anec estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in July 2025 will be 12.11 million tons (previously estimated at 12.19 million tons), soybean meal exports will be 2.4 million tons (previously estimated at 2.25 million tons), and corn exports will be 4.14 million tons (previously estimated at 4.6 million tons) [6] - IMEA reports that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from July 14 - 18, 2025, was 441.52 reais/ton, down from 443.58 reais/ton the previous week [7] - As of July 20, 2025, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 90,000 tons (compared to 200,000 tons in the same period last year), soybean imports were 520,000 tons (compared to 770,000 tons last year), and soybean meal imports were 1 million tons (compared to 1.11 million tons last year) [7] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend for both [8]