山金期货黑色板块日报-20250723

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is currently in a state of weak reality versus strong expectations, with strong expectations prevailing due to positive macro - policy expectations. The demand for the sector is better than that of building materials, but is expected to weaken further during the summer heat, and inventory is likely to rise. In the short term, iron ore is expected to remain strong, supported by the rising prices of rebar, coking coal, and glass, but overall it is in a large - range oscillation [2][5] Summary by Directory 1. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Policy and Market News: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a stable - growth plan for ten key industries including steel, and the National Energy Administration is checking for over - production in coal mines, which led to the continuous limit - up of coking coal and a sharp rise in coke and other black - series products [2] - Supply and Demand: Last week, rebar production decreased, factory inventory declined, social inventory continued to rise, and total inventory increased. Apparent demand dropped month - on - month, indicating a situation of weak supply and demand. The demand for the sector is better than that of building materials, and it is expected to weaken further during the summer heat [2] - Technical Analysis: Futures prices have risen sharply, continuing the previous medium - term upward trend and showing a short - term strong performance [2] - Operation Suggestion: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see stance, buy on dips after adjustments, and conduct short - term operations. Investors with empty positions should be cautious about chasing the rise [2] - Data Summary: - Prices: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased. For example, the rebar main - contract closing price is 3307 yuan/ton, up 2.57% from the previous day and 6.20% from last week [2] - Production: National building - material steel mill rebar production is 209.06 million tons, down 3.51% from last week; hot - rolled coil production is 321.14 million tons, down 0.62% from last week [2] - Inventory: Five major steel product social inventory is 922.11 million tons, up 0.89% from last week; rebar social inventory is 370.16 million tons, up 2.97% from last week [2] 2. Iron Ore - Supply and Demand: Steel mill profitability is fair, with the profit - making steel mill ratio close to 60%. Last week, the molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased, but there is significant downward pressure in the near future as it is the consumption off - season. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventory is slowly decreasing, which supports futures prices, but port trade - ore inventory is relatively high [5] - Technical Analysis: Futures prices are rising strongly but are in a large - range oscillation overall [5] - Operation Suggestion: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see stance, be cautious about chasing the rise, and wait patiently for a pull - back before buying on dips for short - term operations [5] - Data Summary: - Prices: Iron - ore spot and futures prices have increased. For example, the DCE iron - ore main - contract settlement price is 823 yuan/dry ton, up 1.73% from the previous day and 7.30% from last week [5] - Shipment: Australian iron - ore shipment is 1404.9 million tons, down 10.51% from last week; Brazilian iron - ore shipment is 833.2 million tons, up 17.37% from last week [5] - Inventory: Port total inventory is 13785.21 million tons, up 0.14% from last week; port trade - ore inventory is 9193.54 million tons, down 0.50% from last week [5] 3. Industry News - Coal Industry: The National Energy Administration will conduct a production check on coal mines in eight provinces (regions) to promote stable and orderly coal supply. This led to a limit - up in coking coal and a collective surge in the coal sector yesterday [7] - Iron - Ore Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports is 14388.56 million tons, an increase of 72.25 million tons from last Monday. Inventory in some regions has increased, while that in others has decreased slightly [8]