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股指期货将偏强震荡,白银期货再创上市以来新高,焦煤、工业硅、多晶硅期货将震荡偏强,黄金、铜期货将偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-23 02:08

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on July 23, 2025, including股指期货 (strong - biased oscillation),国债期货 (weak - biased oscillation), and multiple commodity futures (strong - biased, weak - biased, or wide - range oscillations) [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Overview - On July 22, 2025, the domestic commodity market saw a rare limit - up surge, with six major futures contracts such as glass, soda ash, coking coal, coke, industrial silicon, and polysilicon closing at the limit - up. The night session of domestic black futures continued to rise, with coking coal up 11% and coke up 5.29%. International precious metal futures generally rose, while international oil prices slightly declined [12]. 2. Macro - economic News - The "Rural Highway Regulations" will be implemented on September 15, 2025, aiming to promote the high - quality development of rural highways. The US and China may discuss issues such as China's purchase of oil from Russia and Iran. The WTO released an arbitration ruling on a Sino - EU trade dispute, and China expressed dissatisfaction. As of the end of June, the number of participants in basic old - age, unemployment, and work - related injury insurance in China increased steadily year - on - year. In the first half of the year, non - bank cross - border capital inflows in China reached $127.3 billion, and foreign investors net - bought domestic stocks and funds worth $10.1 billion, reversing the net - selling trend of the past two years [7]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast 3.1 Stock Index Futures - On July 22, 2025, major stock index futures contracts such as IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 showed a trend of opening slightly higher, first falling then rising, and oscillating upwards. It is expected that on July 23, stock index futures will oscillate strongly. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4132 and 4168 points and support levels at 4110 and 4090 points [16][20]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On July 22, 2025, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts T2509 and TL2509 showed a downward trend. It is expected that on July 23, they will oscillate weakly. T2509 has support levels at 108.50 and 108.45 yuan and resistance levels at 108.70 and 108.79 yuan; TL2509 has support levels at 119.2 and 118.6 yuan and resistance levels at 119.8 and 120.1 yuan [38][44]. 3.3 Precious Metal Futures - On July 22, 2025, the gold futures contract AU2510 and the silver futures contract AG2510 both showed an upward trend. It is expected that on July 23, they will oscillate strongly. AU2510 will attack resistance levels at 794.9 and 798.8 yuan/gram; AG2510 will attack resistance levels at 9550 and 9600 yuan/kg and may reach a new high since listing [44][53]. 3.4 Base Metal Futures - On July 22, 2025, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures contracts showed different trends. It is expected that on July 23, copper futures CU2509 will oscillate strongly and attack resistance levels at 80400 and 80800 yuan/ton; aluminum futures AL2509 will also oscillate strongly with resistance levels at 21000 and 21080 yuan/ton [56][61]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical Futures - On July 22, 2025, the crude oil futures contract SC2509 declined. It is expected that on July 23, it will oscillate and consolidate, with support levels at 500 and 497 yuan/barrel and resistance levels at 506 and 510 yuan/barrel. Other energy and chemical futures such as PTA, PVC, and methanol also have corresponding trends and forecasts [95]. 3.6 Agricultural Futures - On July 22, 2025, the soybean meal futures contract M2509 and the natural rubber futures contract RU2509 showed an upward trend. It is expected that on July 23, they will oscillate strongly. M2509 has resistance levels at 3100 and 3109 yuan/ton; RU2509 has resistance levels at 15280 and 15350 yuan/ton [104][106]. 3.7 Other Commodity Futures - On July 22, 2025, industrial silicon, polysilicon, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and other commodity futures contracts showed significant increases, with many closing at the limit - up. It is expected that on July 23, they will continue to show strong - biased or wide - range oscillations. For example, coking coal futures JM2509 has a high probability of closing at the limit - up of 1048.5 yuan/ton [90][91].