环球市场动态：养老金上调对GDP的带动远高于表观数字

Market Overview - A-shares continued to rise, with the three major indices reaching new highs for the year, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.62%[14] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.54%, marking a new high since February 2022[10] - European markets declined due to unclear progress in US-EU trade negotiations, with the Stoxx 600 index down 0.53%[8] Economic Indicators - In 2025, pensions in mainland China will be raised by 2%, benefiting 147 million retirees, with an estimated increase in disposable income of 65 to 100 RMB per month, reaching 3,900 RMB[5] - The total expenditure on pensions in 2025 is projected to be 400 billion RMB, potentially driving an additional 200 billion RMB in consumption, significantly impacting GDP through multiplier effects[5] Commodity and Currency Trends - International oil prices continued to decline, with NYMEX crude oil down 1.47% to $66.21 per barrel[27] - The US dollar weakened, contributing to a rise in gold prices, which increased by 1.09% to $3,443.7 per ounce[27] - The dollar index fell by 0.5%, marking a year-to-date decline of 10.2%[26] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels in over a week, with the 10-year yield at 4.34%, down 3.4 basis points[29] - Asian investment-grade bonds showed balanced trading, with a preference for mid-term bonds[29] Sector Performance - In the US, 9 out of 11 S&P sectors rose, with healthcare leading gains at 1.90%[8] - The coal sector in Hong Kong saw significant gains, driven by regulatory actions on coal production, while cement stocks experienced mixed performance[10]