国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250723

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views The report presents the price trends and outlooks for various commodities on July 23, 2025. Different commodities are expected to have different trends, including upward, downward, and sideways movements, influenced by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations [2][4]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Expected to move upward in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][8]. - Silver: Expected to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 1 [2][7][8]. Base Metals - Copper: Domestic spot prices are firm, providing support for the price, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10][12]. - Zinc: Expected to have small - scale sideways movements, with a trend strength of 0 [2][13][14]. - Lead: There are still expected supply - demand contradictions, and the price has support, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16][17]. - Tin: The price is weakening, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][19][22]. - Aluminum: Expected to move sideways within a range, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina is expected to move upward in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1; Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23][25]. - Nickel: Macro - economic sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the upside potential, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel is mainly influenced by macro - economic sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine the upside potential, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26][30]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: The commodity sentiment is positive, and it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 [2][31][33]. - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment is high, and attention should be paid to the risk of reaching the daily limit; the trend strength is 2. - Polysilicon: Policy expectations are getting stronger, and the price is unlikely to fall, with a trend strength of 1 [2][34][36]. - Iron Ore: Supported by macro - economic expectations, it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Driven by macro - economic sentiment, they are expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 for both [2][41][44]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese: Driven by the macro - economic market, they are expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 for both [2][46][48]. - Coke: The second - round price increase has been implemented, and it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1; Coking coal is restricted by supply - policy expectations, and it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 1 [2][50][52]. - Steam Coal: Daily consumption is recovering, and the price is expected to stabilize in a sideways manner, with a trend strength of 0 [2][54][57]. Agricultural and Livestock Products - Palm Oil: Boosted by macro - economic factors, but caution should be exercised regarding sentiment reversal. - Soybean Oil: Follows the trend of the oilseed sector but is relatively weak among varieties. - Soybean Meal: Market sentiment is strong, and the price is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner. - Soybean No. 1: Technically, it is expected to move strongly in a sideways manner. - Corn: Expected to move sideways. - Sugar: Expected to have narrow - range consolidation. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. - Egg: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling hens decreases. - Live Pig: Macro - economic sentiment is strong, waiting for verification at the end of the month. - Peanut: Expected to move sideways [4]. Others - Log: Expected to have repeated sideways movements [2][58].