“反内卷”开启煤炭夏季攻势

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [2] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector is experiencing explosive growth, with a 6.18% increase on July 22, indicating a lag compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which has reached a new high since last year [4] - The current proportion of loss-making enterprises in the coal industry is 53.6%, significantly higher than 35% in 2016, highlighting the need for regulatory measures to optimize the industry order and stabilize supply-demand relationships [6][8] - The "anti-involution" policy initiated on July 1, 2025, aims to eliminate low-price competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity, which is crucial for the coal industry's recovery [7][8] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Dynamics - High temperatures have led to a surge in daily coal consumption for power generation, with coal prices continuing to rise due to increased demand from steel mills and ongoing infrastructure projects [12] - The price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal has increased by 38 yuan/ton, reflecting a clear turning point in the coal market fundamentals [12] Section 2: Valuation and Dividend Yield - As of July 22, the coal sector's price-to-book ratio is 1.27, placing it in the 34.77th percentile over the past five years, indicating a low valuation level [15] - The dynamic dividend yield for coal stocks is 5.27%, which is higher than the banking sector's 4.0% and the CSI 300's 2.82%, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [15]