西南期货早间评论-20250723

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the bond market, it is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - For the stock index market, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. - For the precious metals market, the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. - For other futures markets, different views and strategies are proposed according to the specific fundamentals and market conditions of each variety. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.40%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [5]. - The central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and 342.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits matured [5]. - The growth rate of real estate loans has rebounded. At the end of the second quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [5]. - It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6][7]. 3.2 Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 1.12%, 0.90%, 1.15%, and 0.66% respectively [8][9]. - Central enterprises are required to integrate into urban development, promote new - quality productivity, and improve the living environment [9]. - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. 3.3 Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver increased by 0.40% and 1.32% respectively [11]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. 3.4 Other Commodities - Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil): On the previous trading day, steel product futures rose sharply. Although there is an expectation of supply contraction, the downward trend of demand and over - capacity still suppress prices. It is advisable to wait for the right opportunity to go short [13]. - Iron Ore: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose sharply. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but it may continue to be strong in the short term. It is advisable to look for low - level buying opportunities [15]. - Coking Coal and Coke: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of coking coal and coke reached the daily limit. Although there is an expectation of supply contraction, over - capacity may lead to an increase in supply. It is advisable to wait for the right opportunity to go short in the medium term [17]. - Ferroalloys: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron increased by 1.76% and 3.74% respectively. The short - term demand has peaked, and supply may exceed demand. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the low - level support range [19][20]. - Crude Oil: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened low and moved low. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, and various factors restricted oil prices. It is advisable to pay attention to short - position opportunities [21][22][23]. - Fuel Oil: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rebounded after hitting the bottom. The Asian market may be in a state of supply surplus, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - position opportunities [24][25]. - Synthetic Rubber: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber increased by 1.72%. The supply - demand is short - term loose, and it is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. - Natural Rubber: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber increased. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, and it is advisable to pay attention to medium - term long - position opportunities [28][29][30]. - PVC: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC increased by 3.69%. The supply exceeds demand, but the price may be in a relatively strong oscillation [31][34]. - Urea: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea increased by 0.55%. The short - term market fluctuates slightly, and it is advisable to take a long - position view in the medium term [35][37]. - PX: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX increased by 0.53%. The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is advisable to participate cautiously [38]. - PTA: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA increased by 0.38%. The short - term supply increases and demand weakens, but there is support at the bottom. It is advisable to participate in the range and pay attention to the rebound of processing fees [39][40][41]. - Ethylene Glycol: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol increased by 0.98%. The supply pressure is relieved, and it is advisable to participate in the range and pay attention to port inventory and imports [42]. - Short - Fiber: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber increased by 0.75%. The short - term fundamental drive is insufficient, and it is advisable to follow the cost and pay attention to cost changes and production reduction [43][44][45]. - Bottle Chips: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips increased by 0.33%. The raw material price fluctuates, and it is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [46]. - Soda Ash: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash increased by 8.01%. The short - term market fluctuates slightly, and it is advisable to be rational and not over - pursue highs or lows [47][48]. - Glass: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass increased by 9.08%. Affected by market sentiment, the price has risen, and it is advisable to pay attention to the Politburo meeting at the end of the month [49]. - Caustic Soda: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda increased by 3.95%. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is supported by the main downstream. It is expected to oscillate narrowly [50][51]. - Pulp: On the previous trading day, the main contract of pulp increased by 0.75%. The supply tends to expand, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [52][53]. - Lithium Carbonate: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate increased by 2.71%. Although there are concerns about supply, the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. It is advisable to observe more and operate less [54]. - Copper: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper opened high and oscillated. Although the US tariff has an impact, the price may rise. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities [55][56][57]. - Tin: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated and increased. The supply is tight, and it is expected to oscillate strongly [58]. - Nickel: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel increased. The first - grade nickel is in a state of surplus, and it is expected to oscillate [59][60]. - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: On the previous trading day, soybean meal increased, and soybean oil decreased. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and it is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal and call options for soybean oil [61][62]. - Palm Oil: The export of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased, and the domestic inventory has increased. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [63][64][65]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: The price of Canadian rapeseed has fallen. The inventory of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal has changed, and it is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities [66][67]. - Cotton: The global supply - demand of cotton is expected to be loose, and the domestic industry is in the off - season. It is advisable to wait and see [69][70][71]. - Sugar: The domestic and foreign sugar markets have different situations. The short - term basis has been repaired, and it is advisable to wait and see [72][73][74]. - Apples: The expected reduction in apple production has been falsified, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - position opportunities at high prices [75][76][77]. - Pigs: The price of live pigs has fallen slightly. It is in the off - season of consumption, and it is advisable to hold previous short positions [78][79]. - Eggs: The supply of eggs may increase in July, and it is advisable to consider the 9 - 10 reverse spread [80][81][82]. - Corn and Starch: The price of corn has increased slightly, and the supply - demand of corn tends to be balanced. The production and demand of corn starch are weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [83][84][85]. - Logs: On the previous trading day, the main contract of logs decreased by 0.48%. The supply has increased, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [86][87][89].