尿素日评：短期政策预期大于基本面-20250723

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - In the short term, policy expectations outweigh the fundamentals for urea. Although the urea price rose on the previous trading day, the supply pressure remains high with daily production close to 200,000 tons and enterprise inventory around 750,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July provides price support, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand does not supplement, the urea price will face significant downward pressure [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Price Changes - Futures Prices: On July 22, UR01 closed at 1,809 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan or 1.63% from July 21), UR05 at 1,815 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan or 1.57%), UR09 at 1,817 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan or 0.28%), and Shandong spot at 1,840 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.55%) [1] - Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Grained): On July 22, prices in Shanxi were 1,720 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan 1,850 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.54%), in Hebei 1,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Northeast 1,760 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu 1,840 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - Upstream Costs: On July 22, the anthracite coal price in Henan was 1,000 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Shanxi 820 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - Downstream Prices: On July 22, the compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong was 2,950 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan 2,550 yuan/ton (unchanged). The melamine price in Shandong was 5,007 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan or 0.34%), and in Jiangsu 5,200 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] 2. Basis and Spread - On July 22, the basis of Shandong spot - UR was 25 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan from July 21), and the spread of 01 - 05 was - 6 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan) [1] 3. Trading Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1,820 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,828 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,782 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,817 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1,806 yuan/ton, and the position was 191,764 lots [1]