鑫新闻：研究所日报-20250723

Commodity Market Insights - The domestic commodity market experienced a surge with six major contracts, including glass and industrial silicon, closing at the daily limit up due to "anti-involution" policies driving price increases[2] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to eliminate low-price competition, enhancing expectations for supply-side reforms and leading to price rebounds in various commodities[2] Trade Agreements - The U.S. has reached trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia, reducing tariffs on Philippine goods from 20% to 19% and eliminating 99% of tariffs from Indonesia[3] - These agreements are expected to lower global trade uncertainties and signal a new phase in international trade development[3] Automotive Industry Developments - The automotive sector is undergoing a crackdown on irrational competition, with multiple meetings held to address the issue, potentially alleviating price wars in the future[4] - Major automakers like Dongfeng and Changan have expressed support for these regulatory measures[4] Infrastructure Investment Trends - In the first half of 2025, infrastructure investment showed a "blossoming" trend, with the average operating rate of construction machinery at 47.1%, up 4.62% from the previous quarter[4] - The recovery in exports and the initiation of large infrastructure projects are expected to boost domestic demand and improve profit margins in the non-excavation sector from 15% to 20%[4] Financial Market Overview - The latest 10-year government bond yield is at 1.692%, with a change of 1.43 basis points, while the DR007 rate is at 1.474%, down by 1.60 basis points[6] - The USDCNH exchange rate is at 7.1705, with a slight decrease of 0.01%, and the dollar index stands at 97.36, down by 0.49%[8] Investment Sentiment - The A-share market saw significant inflows in sectors such as construction decoration, coal, and electric equipment, indicating strong investor interest[22] - The financing balance in the A-share market reached 1,904.6 billion yuan as of July 21, 2025[15] Risk Factors - Potential risks include insufficient policy support, unexpected adjustments in the real estate market, and escalating tensions between China and the U.S.[27]